One of the questions sure to be argued endlessly at the 2012 Consumer Electronics Show (CES) this week (Jan. 12-16, 2012) in Las Vegas is whether Microsoft’s debut of Windows 8 will jumpstart or hinder the growth of tablet computers to compete with the iPad.
Apple’s iPad tablet has been a roaring success, selling 25 million worldwide in less than three years despite its $500 price tag. Not bad for a completely new type of product on a newly designed platform.
However, no one else’s tablet computer has come even close. HP and Samsung, two giants in computing and mobiles, both have stumbled with their initial tries at tablets. No sooner do new tablets appear than manufacturers seem to rethink their features and head back to the drawing board.
Enter Microsoft hoping to be the white knight who rescues tablets with Windows 8, set to be announced tonight by leader Steve Balmer at a CES keynote. “Windows 8 has an ultrabook spec and a tablet spec, and is very consistent. Microsoft will not allow for any modification,” says leading computer and consumer technology analyst Tim Bajarin, president, Creative Strategies. Is this the clear direction that tablets seem to need? Will dozens of $200 Windows 8 tablets crowd consumer electronics shelves come next Christmas?
That depends, say the experts.
First, Windows 8 remains largely unknown. Most analysts like Bajarin haven’t seen more than preliminary versions, “and a lot depends on the quality of the operating system,” Bajarin adds. Further, Microsoft does not have a good track record with first releases of operating systems.
Second, a highly standardized platform means manufacturers could be competing with me-too products that all look the same, like today’s laptops or the TV market. Would that discourage possible market entrants mulling a $200 consumer tablet?
But today many consumers are confused about what they might get if they buy a tablet, no matter what the price, and they “would be right to be confused,” says analyst Gary Arlen, president, Arlen Communications of Bethesda, Md. He adds, “It depends on how much you want to have access to the net.”
And that may be the key to a winning formula. Consumers already love to access the Web on their smart phones even with those minuscule screens, and 25 million think the experience is worth the $500 for the iPad. Further evidence of their love comes from the 500,000 iPad apps that have been created, as well as the 300,000 reportedly available already for Google Android.
So, it seems likely that anyone, even Microsoft, who can come up with a formula that consumer electronics giants feel they can use to come to market could have a big-time winner.
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