Swine flu to cost schools big bucks

AP Photo/Rajanish Kakade

Pandemic Swine Flu is projected to infect between 25 and 30 percent of all Americans this fall and winter. Based upon the rates of infection this past spring, about half of these illnesses will be in school aged children. 37 to 50 million children will catch Swine Flu and most will lose time from school because of their illness.

Public schools in the United States receive funding in several ways. One of the major sources for school aid is per-pupil funding from the state and Federal governments. That funding is based upon formulas that begin with student attendance.

Every day, in schools nationwide, attendance is taken. At some point during the morning, the count is cut off and the day's attendance determined. Typically, if a student is late and does not arrive until after the cutoff, 10 a.m. as an example, they are not counted for that day.

That data eventually forms the basis for current and future state aid to that school. Each state has different rules, but closures such as "snow days" in the northern states, cost the district money. Districts typically plan for more days than they will need, to take in to account such emergency closures. Closures due to illness are generally treated in the same manner, which is one reason school this fall will not close for a Swine Flu outbreak as they did in the spring.

The Census Bureau estimated that on July 1, 2008 there were about 53 million children in the United States between the ages of 5 and 18. Based on current projections, between 13 and 18 million of these school aged children will catch Swine Flu. The number of days lost due to this illness cannot be estimated accurately, but in the spring outbreak schools typically closed for three days. That suggests that school districts nationwide will lose 40 to 52 million pupil attendance days.

 The Rochester City School district receives just under $11,000 per pupil in "foundation" aid from the State of New York. That come out to about $60 per day per pupil. The school district has about 34,000 students, and can be expected to lose between 25,000 and 34,000 pupil attendance days to Swine Flu this fall. That is a loss of aid amounting to $1.5-$2 million.

The costs of pupil absenteeism nationwide will vary by district. As of 2007, there are over 13,800 school districts in the United States and 275 that have 25,000 or more pupils like the Rochester City School District. Those districts account for 16.5 million students. With an average of 3 days lost, and a Swine Flu infection rate of 25-33%, these schools will lose 12.4 to 16.3 million pupil days. That may mean lost revenues to those districts alone in excess of a half billion dollars or more.

The costs to school districts from teacher absenteeism is in addition to lost aid revenues. A study by the Center for American Progress from 2008 revealed that 5.3% of teachers are absent on any given school day, costing schools over $4 billion yearly for substitutes, sick pay and admin costs. The costs of increased absences by teachers due to the pandemic may easily double or triple this amount.

The Swine Flu pandemic will create significant costs to the school districts of the United States. For districts that are highly dependent upon per pupil aid, the lost revenues may be catastrophic for their budgets. Combined with declining property values affecting real estate tax collections, this school year will see school districts nationwide struggling with their finances.