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'Survivor: Cagayan', Episode 13 analysis: And then there were four

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You didn't think that just because there were only five people left in the game, that there wouldn't be a blindside, did you? True, there has been more than a handful of surprising blindsides this season, but on Wednesday's episode of "Survivor: Cagayan," Trish wasn't the only person blindsided by Tony...we, the viewers, were as well! Be sure to watch the episode in case you missed it, and be sure to get caught up with the full Episode 13 recap.

So was anybody else a touch confused when the votes were read? The whole episode was centered around Kass's falling out with Tony and Trish, resulting in Woo's firm place as the swing vote with Kass and Spencer on the other end of the equation. But not only did Woo decide to vote out Trish, Tony did as well! That can only mean that the producers chose not to show us the entirety of that final conversation between Woo and Tony prior to Tribal Council.

Yes, Tony and Woo must have been on the same page in voting out Trish. If you recall, at the beginning of the episode, Tony is seen pitching the idea to Woo on the canoe, of taking Kass with them to Final Three. Though he didn't specifically mention Trish during that conversation, clearly Tony was telling Woo that Trish needed to go at some point. But Tony also told the camera this episode that going to the end with Woo would be "bad for business" and that his best chance to win was probably up against Trish and Kass...so what made Tony go after his closest ally instead of saving her with his now-wasted Idol?

Here is at least what Tony was partially thinking: His ultimate plan is to ensure he reaches Final Three, by lying about the powers of his "Special Idol." The fact is, that Idol is now just a fancy souvenir, as it can no longer be played in the game. But he is going to lie to the others and tell them that part of the Idol's "Special" powers is that it allows him to use it at Final Four. They could call his bluff, but that would be a stupid move, because the risk is too high.

His only play during this Tribal Council was to either waste his Idol by not playing it or handing it to Jeff (like he did), or, had he really wanted Trish in the game, he could have used it on her to ensure that she go deeper in the game with him. Blindsiding her not only loses him one more potential bitter jury vote, but it solidifies that his master plan is to sit next to Woo in the end, a move that could truly be "bad for business" as he stated. Did he make the right move in getting rid of Trish?

It's fairly clear that Kass has no chance in hell of winning the million dollars and that all players want to sit next to her in the end. Tony was at least smart in not targeting Kass or sending her home tonight, because that would have truly been a stupid move for his end-game. For all intents and purposes, Tony had the power to decide who to get rid of tonight (once Spencer won Immunity) and we knew it wasn't going to be Kass despite their blow-out. Tony's too smart to get caught up in that sort of emotion, the kind that would effect his long-term game. But had he wanted it to be Trish and Kass sitting next to him in the end - like he told the viewers was his intention at one point in the episode - he and Trish could have voted for Woo and then he could have played his Idol on Trish. Boom. With that, Woo would have been sent home with the second-highest number of votes, still leaving Tony with his "Special Idol" and any other lies he had attached to it.

Lost in all of the drama is the fact that Spencer is one Immunity win away from a million dollars. If you look at the make-up of the jury and if you've been following their bitter faces each week on CBS.com with the Ponderosa videos, you'll know that there is no combination of a Final Three that includes Spencer, that doesn't make him the Sole Survivor. Vice versa, he cannot possibly be in the plans of any of the other three contestants as someone they would want to go up against in the end. A Spencer and Tony final vote would be the most interesting - and satisfying - final outcome for the viewers, but even Tony will most likely lose that battle when it comes time for the final vote. Spencer's story is just too enticing, plus, everybody loves an underdog.

Tony's "Special Idol" lie is now his best hope in the game. But man, what a gamble to keep Woo over Trish, especially when Kass revealed to Woo that Tony hasn't been all that loyal. Tony knows that Woo was wavering and Woo is way more likely to flip on Tony than Trish would have been.

Could Woo have just possibly set himself up for a win? And wait a minute, could Woo actually win the game even over Spencer? If Woo blindsides Tony at Final Four, that would be the game's biggest move, a move that Woo could point to as his crowning achievement. He could then also claim that his strategy was to take out Tony all along and that it was he, not Tony, who orchestrated many of the game's biggest moves. Woo is well-liked, but at the moment his strategic gameplay is the part that isn't respected by the jury. Taking out Tony could remedy that. It just might be Woo's only path to the million.

But I don't see Woo making that move. Too risky, plus he probably thinks he can beat Tony in front of a bitter jury.

And Tony's "Special Idol" lie. That lie could be the one that Tony points to as his biggest in the game, the one that led to his million dollar prize should he survive the next elimination.

It all boils down to a two-hour Finale next Wednesday. Who do you think will win "Survivor: Cagayan"? Post your thoughts below!

Be sure to watch the day-after interview with Trish as well as her arrival at Ponderosa.

You will not want to miss my exclusive one-on-one interview with Trish on Thursday! Also, make sure you check out one of my favorite Survivor sites, Survivor Fever.

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