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'Survivor: Cagayan', Episode 11 preview: 'Chaos Is My Friend'

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Last week on "Survivor: Cagayan", Spencer had a huge opportunity to shake-up the game if he could have only chosen wisely. In possession of a hidden Immunity Idol and with his ally Tasha already Immune, Spencer had a fifty-fifty shot: Should he play it on himself, or on Jeremiah? If he were to have chosen correctly, they would have blocked the other alliance's votes and Woo would have been sent home. But Spencer chose to use the Idol on himself (who could blame him?) and the votes were thrown at Jeremiah, sending him out of the game and keeping Tony's fragile alliance intact for at least one more week.

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This leaves only seven left in the game. On one hand, you have Tony, Woo, Trish, Jefra and Kass. Then there is Spencer and Tasha on the outside...for now at least.

According to tonight's video preview (upper left of this column) as well as the following synopsis from CBS, it looks like chaos will reign this week:

Episode 11 – “Chaos Is My Friend” - ONE CASTAWAY’S BIDDING STRATEGY AT THE SURVIVOR AUCTION COULD PAY OFF, ON “SURVIVOR,” WEDNESDAY, APRIL 30. One castaway’s bidding strategy at the Survivor auction could pay off for them. Meanwhile, castaways draw rocks for a huge advantage in the game, and another castaway decides to show off his idol in an attempt to ensure his safety, on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, April 30 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.

Analysis. Whenever I hear the word "chaos" this season, my mind immediately goes to "Chaos Kass." But this time around, it looks like it will be in relation to Tony's increasingly uncontrollable paranoia. Chances are that Tony will feel threatened enough to want to flash his "Special Idol" so that the others know the power that he can potentially wield. This Idol seems like an instant ticket to at least the Final Four for Tony, but if the others are smart and band together, they do still have the power to strip Tony of his.

The preview hints at a possible all-girl alliance, which wouldn't make a whole lot of sense if you think about it. Add to that, historically all-female alliances rarely work. But if Tony reveals his "Special Idol," the others may be clever enough to band together to vote for Tony. Remember, Tony's Idol allows him to play it AFTER the votes have been read, so if they were to vote for Tony, he would then play his Idol to save himself and then the second-highest vote getter would go home.

The only play the others would have is if they truly turn on Tony. The most likely scenario (in this far-fetched scenario) would be for five of the seven to form a short-term alliance. In doing so, the five could split their votes, three for Tony and two for the other person on the outside of the five, say, Woo. Tony and Woo let's say would vote for Spencer. This scenario would mean Tony would be out, but he would then play his Idol, creating a two-two tie between Spencer and Woo, neither of whom would be able to vote. Upon the re-vote, it would be four against Tony's vote and they could vote out Woo. So if the other players are smart enough - and find it to be in their best interest to turn on Tony - in one fell swoop they can flush Tony of his "Special Idol" while at the same time get out his close ally, Woo.

Now, there are several factors that play into this, the biggest of which is of course who wins individual Immunity. The other scenario would be if Tony keeps his Idol a secret, which the synopsis confirms he does not. So then it comes down to when does Tony reveal to the others what is in his "bag of tricks"? If he does it at Tribal, it could be too late to coordinate a detailed counter-strike. But if he does it earlier at camp, that could be his fatal mistake in the game.

You also have to consider: Do the others want Tony to make it to the end? Clearly letting him keep his Idol almost guarantees his spot. Some, like Trish, may find that they prefer to sit against Tony in the end, who undoubtedly has and will burn some bridges. Others, like Jefra, have every reason in the world to make their move. Even if Kass were to flip back to her Brain alliance - along with Jefra - for the plan to work they would still need either Woo or Trish.

Of course, the other way this could go is nowhere. Tony could flash his Idol and it could put fear into everyone's heart. The "five" alliance could stay strong and pick off Tasha or Spencer, whomever doesn't win Immunity. Or, if Tony's paranoia gets the best of him, he could finally gun for Jefra, teaming with Spencer, Tasha and maybe Woo again in blindsiding her. A move of that magnitude would surely turn Trish and Kass against him if they were kept in the dark yet again with one of his moves.

But tonight's episode should be a massively important one. It's the others' chance to strike at Tony. If they don't do it tonight, Tony's path to the end seems eminent.

What do you think will happen? Will Tony pull off another blindside or will he be on the receiving end? Post your comments below and be sure to check back tonight for the full recap and analysis!

How This Works: As the Survivor Examiner, you can expect an episode preview every Wednesday morning detailing the upcoming episode and getting you up to speed in case you missed anything from the previous week. Then later on Wednesday night, expect my full episode recap followed by a separate analysis article.

And that's not all. Every Thursday, you can join me for my exclusive one-on-one exit interview with each voted off castaway. Join me tomorrow for more exclusive interviews!

Of course to make things easy on you, you can either Subscribe to the Survivor Examiner (click "subscribe" above by my name at the top of this article) to get emailed all new articles or you can follow me on Twitter, @tomsantilli. I happen to be a film critic too, so let me know what you think of my film reviews each week as well!

Last but certainly not least, make sure you check out one of my favorite Survivor sites, Survivor Fever.

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