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'Survivor: Cagayan', Episode 11 analysis: Tony's on top of the world

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Another episode, another blindside. That is how this season rolls. Yes Wednesday night's episode of "Survivor: Cagayan" was anything but predictable...and that of course, has been the only thing we've come to expect. Be sure to watch the episode in case you missed it, and be sure to get caught up with the full Episode 11 recap.

And be warned: Spoilers from this week's episode are to follow.

Just keep hanging on, because with every passing day, things change in this game. That's been the mantra for both Tasha and Spencer for quite a while now and they somehow have made it work, day by day, week by week, episode by episode. Of course, with Tasha, it doesn't hurt that she is kicking major ass and has now won three straight Immunity Challenges. Make no mistake: Her ability to physically "outplay" the others has had a huge impact on the social and strategic dynamics within the game.

Who would have thought that we'd be down to our Final Six and that three of them would be made up of Brains Tribe members? Yes one of the most dysfunctional tribes in the show's history now makes up half of the remaining contestants. That alone tells you that sometimes you just need to make it through the next vote, because if you're like Jefra - or several of the others - it doesn't do any good to look at "the bigger picture" when that future day may never come.

Jefra had no real chance of winning the way she was playing, but man does last week's decision loom large now. She had a chance to flip the game on its head and could have voted with Spencer, Tasha and Jeremiah to vote out Woo, who is clearly Tony's right-hand man. Her inaction led to her demise, ultimately.

For Tony, what an amazing, impressive season thus far...but we all knew that the day was coming where he was going to start pissing people off. It's inevitable when you play as hard as he is for the duration of the game, not to eventually make enemies. With two Idols, he is now absolutely guaranteed to make the Final Four (at which point historically, no more Idols can be played), and his super Idol even prevents him from getting blindsided along the way. That last Immunity Challenge (at Final Four) will be an amazing contest, and it would seem that any combination of other three players would be completely foolish to bring him along to the Final Three should he lose that last challenge...right? He's on his way to being hated more and more by each new jury member. Is Tony destined for a Hantz-like losing finish, making him the perfect candidate to sit next against in the end?

Even though he has now acted behind Trish and Kass's back for a second time, you have got to believe that if Tony makes the Final Three, he wins the game. There are bitter juries, sure, but there have rarely been better overall games played by a contestant, should Tony make it to the end. With this group of players, one would have to think that through their anger they would still reward him with the ultimate prize of Sole Survivor, especially if he is sitting next to the likes of Woo and, say, Kass.

What I love about this season and how it has played out, is that four of the remaining six really have a shot at winning the game and I happen to be rooting for all of them. I exclude Kass and Woo from contention at this point. Kass - as I pointed out last week - did still have a scenario where she could have won the game, but like Spencer described tonight, there are windows of opportunity in the game that open and close. Kass's window is now sealed shut. Woo, as likeable as he may be, isn't seen as being a real strategic player or making big moves on his own. If he sits next to Tony at the end, he will be looked at as the wing man. Without Tony, he will be sitting next to at least one other player that is much more deserving than he. His chances, ironically, ended with Jefra's exit, who would have been a great person to sit next to at the end for all involved.

If Tasha wins her way to the end, you would have to think that she is the absolute winner. It's one thing to win a few Immunity Challenges, its another to make a long run of successive wins all the while needing to win each and every time. She is a real threat to win the game, because she does seem dominant physically right now.

And while it has been a blast to watch Spencer scratching and clawing his way through this game, the one to really watch right now is Trish. She has made a ton of low-key but super-important moves along the way. Her demise may end up being her trust of Tony, which is now surely going to be lost following the Jefra blindside. But at this point in the game, Trish really is out of options or people to turn to. Luckily for her, it seems like Kass is the more verbal one next week, which means that Tony may set his sights on her first. Tony, in a strange way, has stayed very loyal to Trish throughout the entire game, so if she swallows her pride once again following the Jefra blindside, they may very well reach the end together.

There are only two episodes left until the two-hour Finale on May 21. We know Tony is safe, but we could be in store for an epic episode if the others attempt to blindside him, only for him to pull out and use the special idol.

What do you think? Will the others try to blindside Tony? Will Tasha win Immunity again? Who is in the most danger next week? Post your comments below!

Be sure to watch the day-after interview with Jefra as well as her arrival at Ponderosa.

Be sure to subscribe to this column (above by my name) to receive email alerts of new postings, as you will not want to miss my exclusive one-on-one interview with Jefra on Thursday!

Also, make sure you check out one of my favorite Survivor sites, Survivor Fever.

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