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'Survivor: Cagayan', Episode 10 preview: 'Sitting in My Spy Shack'

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He may refer to himself as "The Opportunist," but Tony could find that he has ruined his best opportunity to reach the end of "Survivor: Cagayan" after his move last week. Tony (and Woo) decided to flip on their ally LJ, the guy who just six days earlier had swapped Immunity Idols with Tony in a show of loyalty. Tony now heads into tonight's episode with Woo as his closest ally.

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But Tony's hopes in the game could come crashing down tonight, quite literally. Last week's "Next Time On" preview showed that Woo takes what looks like a nasty fall from a tall tree while trying to collect some coconuts. Although all the attention is on Tony right now, he could get a one-week pass if Woo's fall is bad enough that it forces him from the game.

Heading into tonight, there are eight remaining players in the game. On one side you have Jeremiah, Spencer and Tasha. You then have Tony and Woo. Then there is Chaos Kass, Jefra and Trish, all of whom are likely to feel betrayed by Tony's move against LJ.

Here's the synopsis from CBS on tonight's show:

Episode 10 – “Sitting in My Spy Shack” - HOMESICK CASTAWAYS ARE GRANTED A BRIEF REPRIEVE WITH LETTERS FROM HOME, ON “SURVIVOR,” WEDNESDAY, APRIL 23. Homesick castaways are granted a brief reprieve with letters from home. Meanwhile, one castaway secretly embarks on a stakeout to gather intel from the competition and another castaway falls hard while attempting to collect coconuts from the treetops, on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, April 23 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.

Analysis. This looks to be a Tony-centric episode, with the return of Tony's secret "spy shack." In the preview video for tonight's ep (in the video box to the left of this column), we know that Tony is still super-paranoid and looking for any advantage he can. So he eavesdrops on the others from his man-made spy shack. He can gather all the intel he wants, but Tony's game might have already been dealt a fatal blow with potentially losing Kass, Trish and Jefra's vote. Tony is sneaky enough - doesn't he remind you of a somewhat less-lethal version of Russell Hantz? - to reach the end of the game, but like Russell, his chosen path there will make it very difficult for him to win.

Depending on how Trish and Jefra react to the ousting of LJ (my guess is not well), we could see both alliances unite in voting Tony out of the game tonight, since they mutually have reason to want him gone. The beauty of this season is the unpredictability thus far though, so with players like Tony and Kass still in the game, who can possibly predict what will happen? On one hand, Spencer, Jeremiah and Tasha still need Tony and Woo if they are going to regain the majority vote. We could also see Kass slither back over to her former Brains, now on the potential outside of her newly formed alliance.

Quite honestly, Kass and now Tony have pissed off enough people that it doesn't quite make sense for either of them to be the target. If Tony and Woo stay loyal to Spencer and Tasha, the target could be Trish or Jefra next. If somehow Tony can keep Trish and Jefra in his corner following last week, they may gun for Tasha or Spencer. Or, the remaining players could be growing sick of all of the wild cards in the game, so maybe it will be Kass or Tony after all.

Of course, all of this might be a moot point if Woo falls from a tree tonight and is medically evacuated from the game. If that happened, what a bummer that would be. Woo is a likable "Fabio-like" contestant who hasn't really done enough strategically to be thought of as a winner, but up against the right players in front of a bitter jury, he is definitely one of the remaining eight who has a chance of winning the game...should he not injure himself in search of a coconut.

Other x-factors tonight? Let's not forget Spencer's hidden Idol and also the existence of the "Super Idol" that has yet to be introduced into play. It should make for an exciting night...or, it could just be one long "spy shack" episode that plants a huge target on Tony's back, only to end in a medical evacuation situation.

How do you hope tonight's episode plays out? Is Tony in trouble? How will Woo's fall change the game? Post your comments below!

How This Works: As the Survivor Examiner, you can expect an episode preview every Wednesday morning detailing the upcoming episode and getting you up to speed in case you missed anything from the previous week. Then later on Wednesday night, expect my full episode recap followed by a separate analysis article.

And that's not all. Every Thursday, you can join me for my exclusive one-on-one exit interview with each voted off castaway. Join me tomorrow for more exclusive interviews!

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