It's very hard to believe that we're now 10 hours into Survivor's 28th season, but after Wednesday night's episode of "Survivor: Cagayan," we are inching closer to crowning yet another winner. There are now seven people left in the game and one of them will be crowned the Sole Survivor. But per norm, not all seven stand an equal chance at the coveted title and million dollar prize. Be sure to watch the episode in case you missed it, and be sure to get caught up with the full Episode 10 recap.
And be warned: Spoilers from this week's episode are to follow.
So as we near the May 21 Finale, who is in the best position to win the game? If anything, this season has proved that it is entirely unpredictable. But that being said, there are certainly some favorites, some long-shots and then those that really have zero chance at winning the game. Let's take a look, shall we?
Tony. The popular and most obvious pick at the moment is Tony, whose chances just increased tremendously after finding the "Special Idol" this week. The Idol's "special" power of having the ability to be played after votes are read isn't entirely new: Long-time fans may remember that this is how the hidden Idols worked back on Survivor: Panama and Cook Islands (Season 12 and 13, respectively). But it sure is a game-changer to re-introduce it now. We now know that Tony has a "get-out-of-jail free card" to use at his disposal, even though it's a near certainty that he won't be able to use the Idol at the Final Immunity Challenge at Final Four. The big question is whether or not Tony's aggressive style of play could win him the game, or if it will just go to piss off the jury one member at a time. We might have found the answer to that question tonight, when Spencer, Tasha and Jeremiah all claimed they would vote for Tony to win should he make it to the end. Unlike Russell Hantz - whom Tony is often compared to - Tony seems to possess more likeability. He makes big moves for the fun of the game, not because he loves watching others suffer. All of the other players would be foolish to take Tony to the end with them, so Tony's fate may rest in his ability to pull out a few Immunity Challenges down the stretch...and that's one area of the game that Tony has shown weakness.
Jefra. Let's face it, Jefra has been given the "follower" edit and if tonight's episode was any indication, she will never win over the final jury due to her wishy-washy strategic game. Sure, she's the sole Beauty left in the game, with three of her former tribe mates already on the jury, but I don't see many others voting for her to win. She most definitely can make it to the end, but even that looks unlikely now that she's landed on Tony's hit list.
Woo. Woo is perhaps the one person remaining in the game that has zero chance of actually winning. Sure, he's likeable and could perhaps go on an Immunity Challenge run, but put Woo alongside any other two, in any combination, and it seems like there is no likely scenario where he wins. There is time for some moves to be made, but his gameplay thus far hasn't given us any reason to think he is on the verge of a game-shaking alteration of strategy.
Tasha. Tasha is a very interesting threat to win the game, despite the fact that she remains on the outs of the power alliances in the game. She just won her second straight Immunity Challenge and she is very well-liked socially. She has an uphill battle for these reasons. The others would be stupid to not vote her out the first chance they get and even her one remaining close ally in the game, Spencer, is too strategic-minded to want to sit next to Tasha in the end. So Tasha will have an extremely tough time getting to that Final Three...but if she does, she is one of the best bets to win the game.
Trish. Trish is also an interesting choice and definitely has a shot at winning. She is well-liked and strategic enough to understand what's going on around her. She is also smart to keep in cahoots with Tony, the much bigger target who will ultimately take any potential targets off of her back. Her "under-the-radar" approach may not sit well with some and she lacks a "big move" at this point, but if she can take out Tony sometime soon, that could be her "big move" in the game that wins her some jury votes. Tony's new-found Idol prevents this from being likely though. Trish seems like someone Tony may legitimately want to sit next to at the end and if the jury does become bitter enough where they vote against Tony, it is likely Trish may be the beneficiary of much jury love. She is definitely one to watch and someone who has a great shot at Final Three. There are simply too many other big targets remaining in the game, so Trish may very well find herself at the end...so who she sits with will be key to her chances.
Spencer. Speaking of big targets remaining in the game, you've got to love Spencer. Not only has he played an awesome, strategic game, he's definitely one of the stand-out "All-Stars" of this season. Being the under-dog for much of the game has led to him becoming a fan-favorite as well, as everyone loves the underdog. His path to the end is by far the most challenging at this point. Can he make it to the end? Sadly, it's incredibly unlikely, despite how good of a player he is. His best chance of winning the game is if he is able to win Immunity from here on out...a highly unlikely scenario. Because if he doesn't, even if the other alliance blows up, who would want to sit next to Spencer in the end? If by some stretch of fate he does get there though, look out. He is assuredly one of the most deserving players remaining, given his incredible journey to the finish line.
Kass. You heard it hear first: Kass can win Survivor. Discounted as being an unpredictable flip-flopper, "Chaos Kass" is probably a long-shot to win, but I still see some scenarios where it could happen. Sure, she's not all that well-liked by the jury. Sure, she flipped. And sure, she might have a clear path to the end, because most others may want to be sitting next to her. And if she were at the end against Tony, Spencer, Tasha or even Trish, yes, it would seem almost impossible for her to even get one vote to win the game. But there is still hope for Kass in one scenario: If she can get to the end with Woo and Jefra, I think Kass can win. In that scenario, you would have a jury full of people that at least talk like they respect the game (Spencer, Tony, Tasha, to name a few). As Tony becomes more and more unlikeable towards the end, if Kass were the one to end his time in the game, she could win major brownie points and that would mark her second huge move in the game. Against Jefra, only perhaps a few of her Beauty tribe mates would vote for her to win. Woo could get a vote or two from his former Brawns. But Kass would easily be able to show her credentials off at a Final Tribal Council, over the likes of Woo or Jefra. So don't discount Kass just yet. In a season of unpredictable finishes, Kass winning Survivor could be the cherry on top.
Be sure to watch the day-after interview with Jeremiah as well as his arrival at Ponderosa.
Be sure to subscribe to this column (above by my name) to receive email alerts of new postings, as you will not want to miss my exclusive one-on-one interview with LJ on Thursday!
Also, make sure you check out one of my favorite Survivor sites, Survivor Fever.