A new poll released today from Survey USA shows former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton with a fairly sizable lead over all the potential Republican challengers in the 2016 presidential election. The same poll shows Vice President Joe Biden losing in the same matchups, once again raising the stakes on Clinton's decision on whether to run or not in 2016. The following is an in-depth analysis of the the Survey USA poll. For more polling updates up through 2016 presidential election follow this page on Twitter, Facebook, or subscribe through the link on the left.
The Overall Numbers
According to the Quinnipiac poll Clinton leads all the potential Republican challengers in Florida as seen below:
- Clinton (46 percent) versus Sen. Rand Paul (42 percent)
- Rand Paul (47 percent) versus Vice President Joe Biden (39 percent)
- Clinton (53 percent) versus Senator Marco Rubio (39 percent)
- Marco Rubio (46 percent) versus Vice President Joe Biden (43 percent)
- Hillary Clinton (47 percent) versus fmr. Gov. Jeb Bush (41 percent)
- Jeb Bush (47 percent) versus Vice President Joe Biden (38 percent)
What the Poll Means
Clinton's shows strength across the board, even against candidates who come from Florida like Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) and former Gov. Jeb Bush (R-FL). Clinton's lead's are small, but Florida is always a closely contested state and if a candidate wins by less than one percent, as George W. Bush did in 2000, he or she still gets all of the states precious 29 electoral votes.
Vice President Joe Biden, on the other hand, shows weakness compared to Clinton's strength, consistently polling behind all the major Republican candidates.
It is hard to envision a path for Republican victory in the Electoral College without winning Florida. The Republicans would have to win other, less demographically friendly states like Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado to make up for the loss of Florida.
In 2012 President Obama won Florida versus Mitt Romney (Obama 49.9 percent to 49.03 percent for Mitt Romney) and won the Electoral College by a 332-206 margin over Romney.
Comparison to Other Polls
The Survey USA poll falls well in line with another 2016 Florida survey from Public Policy Polling released in early June which showed Clinton with a one point lead against Jeb Bush, a four point lead over Rubio, and a six point lead over Rand Paul.
A Quinnipiac University poll released in April shows Clinton with an eight point lead over Bush, an eight point lead over Rubio, and an 18 point lead over Paul.
Every poll is ultimately based on a sampling of potential voters. A number of factors can influence the poll's accuracy such as sample size and composition
In this poll Suvery USA surveyed 950 adults, 849 of whom were registered voters. Of those registered, 558 were determined to be likely voters. The results displayed above include only data from those determined to be likely voters. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 3.4 percent.
Of the poll's respondents, 35 percent identified themselves as Republican and 38 percent identified themselves as Democrats. The smallest group, 26 percent, identified themselves as independents. These party identification breakdowns are not out of line at all in a state which has been closely contested in the last two presidential elections. A CNN exit poll in 2012 found that 35 percent of the state's vote identified as Democratic, with 33 percent identifying as Republican and 33 percent as independents.
In his 2012 ratings Nate Silver found Survey USA to be an average pollster in terms of accuracy. In 17 polls done before the 2012 presidential election Suvery USA showed a 0.5 point bias for the Republican candidate, on average, when compared to the actual results from the election.