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Sultry weather expected for Southwest Florida

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Thanks to a high-amplitude upper level wind pattern (Fig. 1), colder than average weather can be found across much of the Plains states early this Saturday morning (Oct. 19, 2013). An upper level ridge across western Canada and a companion upper level trough from central Canada to the western High Plains of Colorado and New Mexico has allowed chilly Canadian air to be driven southward on upper level northerly winds.

With the jet stream (high speed upper level winds) racing from east Texas to the Mid-Atlantic states, cold air remains well-removed from southwest Florida. In places like Naples and Fort Myers, sultry (warm temperatures and high humidity) weather will rule (daytime highs in the upper 80’s and overnight lows in the low to mid 70’s).

In fact, at 6:00 a.m. E.D.T, on Oct. 19, the temperature and dew point in Naples were 74 degrees and 72 degrees, respectively. In Oklahoma City, the temperature sat at 33 degrees with a dew point of 30 degrees. A frost advisory was in effect for the Oklahoma City area. Yesterday, Oct. 18, Oklahoma City’s high temperature was 17 degrees colder than average.

Only small changes to the overall upper level and near ground level weather and wind patterns will take place during the next week. However, by Oct. 24, significant weather changes should be affecting southwest Florida. That’s when a strong cold front arrives, along with an associated stronger, very cold, Canadian high-pressure system. This should allow for the set up of a strong northeast wind regime across southwest Florida. High temperatures will probably have trouble getting out of the upper 70’s late next week, should this weather pattern develop.

© 2013 H. Michael Mogil