A cold front will move eastward into the area today, and become stationary by this afternoon. Low pressure developing along the front to our south will spread moisture and lift into our area this afternoon.
There could be a shower this morning across the area, however most of the activity will hold off until this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will become quite numerous this afternoon. Atmospheric profiles suggest strong winds aloft along with high shear values this afternoon. This will lead to some strong to severe storms, with the threat of damaging wind gusts, hail, and isolated tornadoes.
The low pressure system will move northward across the state tonight. This will pull the stationary front westward with deep moisture pouring into the area from the south. Heavy rain is possible at times tonight, in addition to a few thunderstorms. With the warm front to our west, we will see the threat of a few strong to severe storms continuing overnight.
As the low lifts northward, it will drag a cold front eastward across the state during the day on Thursday. Heavy rain and strong storms will again be a threat.
The entire system will shift to the east Thursday night and Friday, as a large upper trough digs into the Great Lakes region. Showers will continue Thursday night, and gradually become more scattered on Friday.
Here is the forecast: For today, it will be mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs on will be in the mid to upper 70s. Winds SW 5-10 mph.
Tonight, rain likely along with a few embedded thunderstorms. Lows will be around 60. Winds SE 5-10 mph.
Thursday, cloudy with rain likely along with a few embedded thunderstorms. Highs will be near 70 degrees. Winds S 10-15 mph.
Thursday night, cloudy with showers likely. Lows will be in the low 40s.
Friday, mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs will reach the mid to upper 50s.
Extended Analysis: A large upper level trough across the region Friday night and Saturday will keep the atmosphere cool and unstable. Scattered showers are possible through this time frame.
The showers will gradually end Saturday night with dry weather expected on Sunday as the trough begins to lift out. High pressure will build across the region by the beginning of next week.
Here is the extended forecast: Friday night, mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows will be in the low 40s.
Saturday, mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs will be in the mid 50s.
Saturday night, mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows will be around 40.
Sunday, partly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower early. Highs will be in the low 60s.
Sunday night, clear with lows around 40.
Monday, sunny with highs in the low to mid 60s.