Strong to Possibly Severe Thunderstorms This Afternoon into This Evening: A difficult weather forecast is on tap for this afternoon into this evening in regards to strong to possibly severe thunderstorm development across northern Maine. The latest HRRR model has done very well with timing shower development and movement, so will use this model for this forecast.
It looks like showers and thunderstorms will track into northwestern Aroostook County by about 11 am this morning and then progress eastward into eastern Aroostook County during the early and mid-afternoon hours. Things may dry out briefly late this afternoon before a second batch of showers and thunderstorms move through between 6 and 10 pm this evening.
The airmass across northern Maine will be quite unstable today with CAPE values of 1000 to 2000 j/kg with dew point temperatures in the mid to upper 60s (it will be humid). In addition, the atmosphere will be moist with precipitable water values of 1.50 inches or greater and K-index values of 35 or greater. Some turning is noted in the forecast soundings, therefore, some of the more stronger storms could exhibit rotation. Hail potential looks marginal, however, there is the potential for training of thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding.
Everything should wind down this evening after about 10 pm and Monday and Tuesday will be very nice days.
Today: Showers and thunderstorms developing late this morning, then showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe with strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding. Highs near 78 Degrees. Winds West 5 to 10 mph.
Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms this evening, then showers coming to an end after midnight. Some thunderstorms may be strong to severe this evening with strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding. Lows near 55 Degrees. Winds Northwest around 5 mph.
Monday: Partly sunny. Highs near 78 Degrees. Winds Northwest 5 to 10 mph.
Monday night: Clear to partly cloudy. Lows near 48 Degrees. Winds Northwest around 5 mph.
Tuesday: Sunny. Highs near 82 Degrees. Winds Southwest around 5 mph.
Prepared by Rob and Meg Lightbown, Crown Weather Services
Disclaimer: All forecasts herein are made to the best ability of the forecaster. However, due to standard forecasting error, these forecasts cannot be guaranteed. Any action or inaction taken by users of this forecast is the sole responsibility of that user.