Warm and humid air will stream northward across the region today. A disturbance will track across northern Ohio this afternoon. This feature could trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, lasting into the evening hours. A few of the storms could be strong.
Tonight, the disturbance will move away, as a more potent disturbance tracks through the Ohio Valley. Models depict a large thunderstorm complex overnight, tracking across southern Indiana and southern Ohio. We could see some showers and storms overnight, but the greatest threat will be across the south.
Low pressure will move from the central Great Lakes to the eastern lakes Sunday, dragging a strong cold front eastward across our area during the afternoon. We could see a few showers and storms early, then we will likely see a lull in the activity. More widespread and robust activity is expected during the afternoon and evening on Sunday. Severe weather is a distinct possibility.
A much different air mass will spread across the region behind the cold front Sunday night and Monday. Temperatures will struggle to reach 70 on Monday with lots of clouds and lake effect rain showers likely.
Here is the forecast: For today, partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Highs will be in the low 80s. Winds S 10-15 mph.
Tonight, partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows will be in the mid 60s. Winds SW 5-10 mph.
Sunday, partly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Highs will be around 80. Winds SW 5-10 mph.
Sunday night, mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows will be in the low 60s.
Monday, mostly cloudy with showers likely. Highs will be in the upper 60s.
Extended Analysis: An unusually deep and cold upper trough will spread across the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Cold temperatures combined with instability from the lake will be enough for a low chance of showers both days. Temperatures will average 5 to 15 degrees below average for late July.
By Thursday, the upper trough will begin to lift out and high pressure will build toward the area. Drier air should end the threat of showers with skies becoming mostly sunny.
Here is the extended forecast: Monday night, mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows will be in the low to mid 50s.
Tuesday, partly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs will be in the mid to upper 60s.
Tuesday night, partly cloudy with lows around 50.
Wednesday, partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs will be in the low to mid 70s.
Wednesday night, mostly clear with lows in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Thursday, mostly sunny with highs in the mid to upper 70s.