Monday was the nicest day of the next seven, and maybe the best day we'll see in the next two weeks! We had highs in the mid to upper 40s with sunshine and won’t see that combination again for quite a while…possibly not until after March 10th. Meteorological winter is ending Thursday, but Mother Nature didn’t get the memo, or tweet or email reminder. In fact, we’ll be getting colder heading into March, but I am jumping ahead of myself.
High pressure over western New York provided the Monday sunshine, but easterly winds have increased because of an approaching storm currently strengthening as it heads into Arkansas. The storm is producing everything from severe weather and flooding rain in the southeast to high winds across the south, to blizzard conditions with heavy snow from New Mexico to Kansas. The snow will spread into Missouri, Illinois, northern Indiana and Michigan on Tuesday and Tuesday night.
I expect rain to arrive by daybreak on Tuesday, but it could start as a mix of sleet, freezing rain and snow in some areas, mainly north and east of Cincinnati. Any wintry mix will be brief as milder air mixes down from above during the morning, helped in part by widespread rainfall. In fact, models are showing heavy rain tomorrow morning through midday before tapering to light showers in the afternoon and evening. Local amounts up to an inch will be possible by Tuesday night, and we may even hear a rumble of thunder in a few areas. Highs tomorrow will climb to the mid 40s in the Cincinnati Tri-State.
Colder air will return in the wake of the storm and by Wednesday morning we’ll change the rain showers to snow showers with rounds of snow or snow showers on Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday. Models are showing enough snow for light accumulations by Wednesday night, but temperatures will be warm enough (upper 30s to near 40) to melt the snow in most places during the day. There may be some accumulation by Thursday morning, however, as lows fall into the upper 20s.
Snow showers will continue on Thursday, the final day of the winter, with highs in the 30s, and the we start Meteorological Spring on a cold note with snow showers and highs in the 30s again on Friday, and a few flurries with highs barely getting above freezing on Saturday, March 2nd! Our normal high is in the upper 40s, so this will be a cold start to the new month and new season…and model guidance shows the pattern continuing through the middle of March! Looking that far ahead can be misleading because models are generally unreliable for specific storms and temperatures beyond seven days…but they do give us trends that we can trust and the trend is cold and stormy.
Check out the snow potential for next two weeks…
Keep your eyes on the sky and enjoy the changing weather!
Skyeye Weather LLC