Our relentless parade of clipper systems is about to come to an end as the overall pattern across the United States undergoes some changes.
The caboose of the clipper train will arrive tonight with another round of light snow. A general 1 to 3 inches can be expected across the region from this system. Temperatures behind this system are not terribly cold so the lake response will be quite limited with only a few snow showers or flurries lingering into Wednesday.
Then we should see a break in the activity Wednesday night before the next system approaches for Thursday and Friday. This system will be one to watch as we will have some input from the southern branch of the jet stream, something that has been lacking over the past week or two.
First, another northern branch system – a clipper for all intents and purposes, will track southeastward into the Great Lakes on Thursday. At the same time, an upper level system over the southwestern United States will track into the Plains States on Thursday.
This is where models begin to diverge on their solutions. Most of the models try to phase these two systems at some point, but when and where are the issues. Milder air ahead of the system will also mean we will have to deal with a rain/snow line somewhere across the region, but where this sets up is uncertain.
It does look like once the storms phase, the new consolidated system will intensify rapidly. If the phasing happens farther west, then portions of the eastern Great Lakes could see a heavy snow event. If the phasing happens later and farther east, then snowfall would be much less.
The latest 12z Euro and the 12z GFS support heavy snowfall for northern PA, northeastward through central and eastern NY. But, this is subject to change.
Once this system moves away, models are in good agreement that the next storm should be a warm one for the eastern Great Lakes, with rain and milder temperatures arriving some time early next week.