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Stock market preview for the week of April 11, 2014

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The S&P 500 broke above resistance at 1883 and moved to new all-time highs during the past week. Record highs were seen in every session but Monday, with Wednesday currently holding the highest closing price of 1890.90 and Friday the highest intraday price of 1897.28.

Friday began with investor optimism on the jobs report, but the session slipped from early gains to close lower at 1865.09. Even after shedding over 30 points from the early highs in the pullback, the index finished the week with a gain of 0.40%. The index has finished higher in 25 of the past 43 sessions.

The pullback Friday may have been due to anxieties investors had after looking more closely at the job report that triggered a round of profit taking. Even though there were rebounds seen in construction jobs, investors might have felt that construction lagged for this time of year.

One look out the window to see over a foot of snow still on the ground in much of the Traverse City area gives a clue as to why these jobs were somewhat slow to develop. A year ago the area had already seen several days near 80 degrees.

The problem goes further than the great white north of Northern Michigan, many of the areas in the southern part of the state just lost snow cover this past week, weeks behind normal thaws.

Seasonal Weight Restrictions, commonly referred to as the Frost Laws, that prevent heavily weighted trucks from traveling many roads are currently in effect across every county of the state. It is uncommon for weight restrictions to remain in effect across the entire state this late into the spring.

These weight restrictions prevent the transportation of heavy equipment and supplies required for construction unless the travel is on roads designated as state truck routes. Since most construction sites are located well off these truck routes, the restrictions are preventing most construction project work from beginning until after the restrictions are lifted. As a result many seasonal construction job additions normally seen in Michigan have already been delayed several weeks, and were absent from this month’s jobs report.

Even though the Artic Vortex has been broken, the snow it left behind is still piled high in many places and this continues to limit seasonal job additions. Other areas of the nation that normally have lost snow cover weeks before now still have snow cover and or Seasonal Weight Restrictions on roads remain in effect, again softening the numbers of construction job additions.

The increase in service sector jobs were probably affected by the weather too. Snow and below normal temperatures have slowed retail trade as homeowners with outdoor project plans had to put them on hold until the weather breaks, reducing the need for additional staff to process or deliver these orders. Gardening Centers that are normally setup and staffed with seasonal help by this time of year have also been delayed in many areas.

The good news is the jobs report was relatively strong without the normal additions. The delay in these job additions will probably help pad the numbers in the coming months.

Volume levels decreased over the past week, falling 7.42% from those seen in the previous week. Thursday’s mild selloff posted the week’s lowest volume with Friday’s downturn posting the highest volume levels. The five day variance between high and low volumes continued to moderate, dropping to 17.28%.

Major Stock Market Indexes

The index charts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, NASDAQ, New York Stock Exchange and Russell 2000 saw strong rebounds develop early in the week, but these rebounds faltered somewhat in the fairly large pullbacks seen on Friday.

Pullbacks in the Biotech’s and over spill into other sectors continued to throttle the market. After a brief rebound in the Biotech’s, many broke lower again falling deeply on Friday. Six of the eight Biotech’s included in both the NASDAQ Biotech Index (^NBI) and the S&P 500 were in the top 20 decliners in the S&P 500 Including: Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) slipping 5.92%, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) slipping 4.75%, Biogen Idec (BIIB) slipping 4.50%, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) slipping 4.44%, Celgene (CELG) slipping 4.33%, and Amgen (AMGN) slipping 4.04%. Another from the Healthcare Sector that is not considered a biotech saw a large pullback: Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) slid 6.46%, but Intuitive finished the week over 16% higher.

The selloff again dragged many of the high fliers that are trading to forward earnings into the pullback along with a one that is not yet trading to even value on current earnings. The largest contributor in the pullback after the seven Healthcare stocks came from six Consumer Discretionary Sector constituents with: TripAdvisor (TRIP) falling 6.14%, Netflix (NFLX) falling 4.90%, Priceling.com (PCLN) falling 4.80%, Epedia (EXPE) falling 4.60%, Harman International (HAR) falling 4.32% and Carmax (KMX) falling 4.21%.

The Information Technologies Sector added five of the top twenty including: Micron Technology (MU) dropping 5.92%, Google (GOOGL) dropping 4.67%, Facebook (FB) dropping (4.61%), Yahoo (YHOO) dropping 4.19% and Altera (ALTR) dropping 4.11%.

The remaining two in the top twenty were Financial Sector Stocks: E*Trade Financial (ETFC) losing 7.81% and Charles Schwab (SCHW) losing 4.82%.

Even though the pullbacks were quite large in these twenty, all in excess of 4%, several finished the week with a gain or only small losses. Many of these stocks have established downtrends and could continue lower, but others fell from recent surges higher.

Some of these stocks are trading to earnings expectations that might not happen for several years, so these downtrends seem justified. Even so, the drops seen on Friday seem extreme, and it seems more likely continued trends lower could be at a slower pace.

Others have exhibited earnings potential that prices them a year or less forward on earnings, so it does not seem unlikely they could return to a more bullish stance. The high share price of some of these stocks could work against them though, even if they are cheap on an earnings basis. The lack of a dividend could also send investors looking elsewhere.

Several of the 20 stocks listed above had earnings and earnings potentials questioned in past articles. Some are also trading at price plateaus that could slow price increases regardless of earnings potential, again reasons that cause this were touched on in past articles.

The greatest effects from the selloff were seen on the NASDAQ. Although it rebounded strongly during the early week pushing back above both the 13 EMA and 50 EMA, the rebound was turned back prior to reaching the previous high with pullbacks on Thursday and Friday. The downturn Thursday finished below the 13 EMA and Friday’s 2.60% setback fell well below the 50 EMA, sending the index to a close lower than that seen in the previous cycle. The lower high was the second failure to reach a higher high and the lower low was the second in series putting the NASDAQ in an established downtrend.

The Russell also rebounded strongly in the early week, pushing back above both the 13 EMA and 50 EMA. The Russell’s rebound also failed to reach a high higher than the previous cycle for the second time. Friday’s 2.35% fall punctured and finished below both the 13 EMA and 50 EMA. The drop on the Russell did not reach a lower low and therefore it has not yet established a downtrend.

Although most indicators won’t show these two indexes as oversold yet, they fell quickly near or below levels they were deeply oversold at just a week ago, so these indexes are actually currently oversold.

Unlike the NASDAQ and Russell 2000, the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and New York Stock Exchange have rebounded from higher lows and reached higher highs, thus establishing uptrends. Although not very common, the current inconsistency in trends between the indexes has been seen before. There have been several times when the indexes have trended in opposite directions, sometimes for several weeks, before a common direction was again found.

The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and New York Stock Exchange all finished the week with gains.

The Dow Jones pushed back above the 13 EMA on Monday finishing every session since above this level. Wednesday finished above the highs it fell from on March 7. The Dow again failed to reach a new all-time high close in the recent push higher before turning lower Thursday, although Wednesday’s close came very close, falling just 3.66 points short of the Dec 31 record.

The S&P 500 broke back above the 13 EMA on Monday and finished each session above it until Friday finished slight below it. The index pushed to an all-time high close on Tuesday and increased the record Wednesday. Although the index finished slightly lower Thursday it broke to a new intraday record high and Friday increased on this record before slipping lower. Even though Friday slipped 1.25% lower, the index managed to post a gain for the week. It finished the week 1.36% below Wednesday’s record high close.

The New York Stock Exchange saw records set in all but Thursday’s session. It pushed to a record close on Monday, increasing the record on both Tuesday and Wednesday. After falling short of a new intraday high in a small setback Thursday, the NYSE pushed well above the old record on Friday. The index maintained well above the 13 EMA throughout the week. The NYSE finished Friday with the smallest percentage decline of the five, slipping 0.77%.

It seems possible the pullback Friday was a delayed reaction to the jobs report that spurred profit taking. It also seems possible those selling into this news overlooked factors that remain in play. The quick drops on the indexes left them closer to oversold conditions than most indicators will show. It does not seem impossible stocks could continue lower, but it does seem possible they could already be near a rebound point.

US Treasury Charts

The 20 year US Treasury Note dropped in the first three sessions of the past week. It finished below the 13 EMA Tuesday and fell slightly through the 50 EMA Wednesday before rebounding to finish the session resting on the 50 EMA. It finished higher Thursday and Friday, turning off a higher low Wednesday. It broke back above the 13 EMA on Friday. This chart continues to show bullishness.

Long term US Treasury charts continued to show bullishness into the pullbacks in stocks and gold. This is somewhat bearish for stocks, although it continues to seem likely that treasuries could falter in the not so distant future.

The interest rate on the 10 year US Treasury Note pushed higher in three sessions, with Wednesday’s high eclipsing the previous cycle’s high, but it fell short of the high of the cycle before that. The Ten Year pushed above the 13 and 50 EMA Monday, holding above both until Friday’s large pullback slipped back below both. The 13 EMA made a bullish cross above the 50 EMA. This chart continues to hold within bullish trends.

Gold

Sunday night gold bounced from 1295 to 1298, retreated to 1295 and bounced again to 1298 before slowly trending lower to finish the night at about 1295.

Monday morning gold began by holding tightly to 1295 before bouncing to 1297, but the retreat broke below 1295 falling to about 1291 by the London open. It trended higher in bounces until failing at 1296 just before the New York open. Gold trended lower to about 1284, and then traded flatly near 1285 until it began a trend lower at the Sydney open with this fall reaching 1280 shortly after the Hong Kong open. The trend reversed carrying gold back to 1295 to finish the night.

Tuesday gold bounced between 1283 and 1286 until a $5 plunge broke lower support during New York trading and gold trended lower to near 1278. It rebounded and held flatly near 1280 until pushing to 1284 after the Hong Kong open, slipping slowly lower to finish the night at about 1283.

Wednesday morning gold traded between 1282 and 1285 until a $7 push higher to 1291 just before the New York open. It then trended higher to almost 1295 before the London close, then slipping slowly lower to 1289 and traded between there and 1293 for the rest of the night, finishing at about 1292.

Thursday gold traded between 1291 and 1294 until beginning to trend lower at London open, where it slid to about 1282 just before the New York open. It began a slow trend higher off this low that fell just short of 1289. After falling off this high, gold traded between 1284 and 1288 for the remainder of the night, finishing Thursday at about 1286.

Friday gold traded flatly during the Hong Kong session, staying within a point of 1286 until breaking higher at the London open with the run continuing into New York trading, topping at 1307 shortly after the London close. It slipped off this high falling to about 1301 then rebounded in a couple shallow bounces to finish the week with a New York Spot close of 1305.10 and higher than the previous week’s close of 1294.90.

The charts appear to show a possible rebound from support at about 1280 developing, but it seems possible the 1280 support could be retested. The run up Friday ended with the London exchanges’ close. Gold had seen the majority of support of higher prices during the London trading during the week, with most other markets trading flat to trending lower. It seems possible that some of these moves higher could have been short covering after the rebound from support. At this point there does not appear to be buyers entering to support higher prices.

S&P 500 Constituent Charts

Overall the constituents showed considerable bullishness in the three day run higher. Although 110 constituents slipped by 2% or greater Friday, the run up into that drop left the late week pullback looking small in comparison to the moves higher in many of the constituent’s charts.

Several of the stocks with pullbacks exceeding 4% Friday finished the week with gains, while others only posted small loses. Only 148 of the constituents finished the week lower than the prior week’s finish.

Several of the stocks with pullbacks in excess of 2% saw these pullbacks after large price run ups during the early week. Many of these stocks are underpriced to current earnings or the next full year forward earnings expectations, and these pullbacks were likely the result of profit taking on the quick run ups.

Most constituents in uptrends maintained within the established trends and some are near lower trend lines.

Although some broke below lower trends, most stocks in downtrends also maintained within the established trends, and many are near areas they could rebound from.

Friday’s pullback was somewhat unsettling, but overall it does not appear to have caused bearish divergences on the constituent’s charts.

It does look likely that some stocks that have turned lower may continue lower for the time being. Others that have fallen could trade more or less sideways from recent drops to allow earnings to catch up. Some stocks are not cheap at current earnings and projections, but they are not expensive either.

Many of the constituents still appear cheap at current prices.

Based on Friday’s close, the constituents are trading at a Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) un-weighted operating earnings P/E of about 19.1. They are trading at a full year forward P/E of about 15.8, so they are trading a little over a year forward on earnings expectations when considering the average P/E most commonly used of 15. As discussed in a past article, this average P/E is probably quite low when considering only the actual S&P 500 as a basis and not adjusting the P/E higher, so most constituent stocks are probably still underpriced on a historical basis.

The current P/E’s have dropped from those seen a couple months ago, when the S&P 500 was trading at a lower price so earnings and earnings projections are keeping up with the increase seen in stock prices.

Quick pullbacks in stock prices left many of the constituents much closer to oversold than most indicators show.

Interesting Points

Of the ten deepest percentage falls on the index Friday only one, Charles Schwab (SCHW) with a 0.92% yield, paid a dividend. There were only three payers in the 18 deepest percentage falls with the two additional payers being Expedia (EXPE) with a 0.86% yield and Harman International (HAR) with a 1.15% yield. Dividends often do make a difference.

There were 20 constituents that fell in excess of 4% on Friday, including six from the NASDAQ Biotech Index. Five constituents topped 5% in losses: E*TRADE (ETFC) with a 7.81% ($1.73) loss, Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) with a 6.46% ($35.11) loss, TripAdvisor (TRIP) with a 6.14% loss ($5.61), Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) with a 5.92% ($8.96%) loss and Micron Technologies with a 5.92% ($1.42) loss. Of these five only Alexion Pharmaceuticals is considered a biotech.

The eight Biotech’s included in both the NASDAQ Biotech Index (^NBI) and the S&P 500 performed as follows during the week.

On Friday the eight performed as follows listed by largest price losses to largest price gain: Biogen Idec (BIIB) lost $13.59 and fell 4.50%, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) lost $13.26 and fell 4.44%, Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN) lost $8.96 and fell 5.92%, Celgene (CELG) lost $6.22 and fell 4.33%, Amgen (AMGN) lost $5.02 and fell 4.04%, Vertex Pharmaceuticals (VRTX) lost $3.28 and fell 4.75%, Gilead Sciences (GILD) lost $1.80 and fell 2.43%, while Mylan (MYL) gained $0.77 and increased 1.54%.

Many of the Biotech’s had rebounded prior to Friday’s fall. A couple, Gilead Sciences and Mylan finished the week with gains over the prior week. The week over week performances listed in alphabetical order are: Alexion Pharmaceuticals finished down $6.92 or 4.63% lower, Amgen finished down $1.44 or 1.19% lower, Biogen Idec finished down $5.85 or 1.99% lower, Celgene finished down $1.91 or 1.37% lower, Gilead Sciences i finished up $3.65 or 5.32% higher, Mylan finished up $1.80 or 3.69% higher, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals finished down $14.75 or 4.92% lower, and Vertex Pharmaceuticals finished down $ 1.96 or 2.89% lower. Aside from Alexion and Regeneron, the Biotech’s really didn’t have that bad of a week.

E*Trade finished the week with the largest weekly percentage loss, down 9.56%. Two constituents finished the week with double digit percentage gains; Anadarko Petroleum (APC) with a 18.97% gain and Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) with a 16.21% gain.

Not all constituent stocks were in retreats Friday; nine finished the session with gains in excess of 2%. The largest percentage gain by the constituents on Friday was by Best Buy (BBY) at 3.47%.

The un-weighted gains by the constituents were slightly higher than the weighted gains on the index over the past week. The un-weighted percentage gain was 0.48% versus the index’s weighted gain of 0.40%.

Indicators

Although the indicators featured in these articles are not always correct, they have been many times and being so they are worth reading about and taking note of.

The (-)/+ 90 D, +2% L, -2%L, +/(-) 90 D, 100 L and 90E indicators are currently active. The (-)/+ 90 D indicator will expire after Monday’s close. See a more detailed description of most of the indicators developed through research and featured in these articles here.

The (-)/+ 90 D indicator that became active on Nov 25, 2013 has performed as follows to this point in the format: highest close / lowest close / last close. This indicator will expire after Monday’s close.

+4.91% / -3.36% / +3.47%

The +2% L indicator did not provide a correct indication during the past week.

The -2% L indicator did not provide a correct indication during the past week.

It continues to seem likely volatility could remain absent. It seems possible the 2% indicators could expire without correct indications in this instance.

The +/(-) 90 D that became active on Feb 21, 2014 has performed as follows to this point in the format: highest close / lowest close / last close.

+2.98 / 0.00% / +1.67%.

The lowest close only considers closes lower than the S&P 500 closing price on the starting date, if there are none lower it is reported as zero percent.

Monday’s rebound took the S&P 500 to lower level of the 100 L at 1875.18 before slipping to close about three points lower. Tuesday pushed strongly higher through the 100 L lower level and above the 1883 resistance early in the session, but it cupped lower through mid-session before rebounding to finish near the session high at 1885.52. Wednesday’s low rebounded at 1883.79, finding support near the previous resistance before continuing higher to finish at a record close of 1890.90. Thursday continued higher initially to a new intraday high, before again slipping and finding support near the previous resistance at 1882.65 and rebounding to finish above it at 1888.77. Friday opened higher and pushed higher, reaching a record intraday high of 1897.28, but the index dropped off this high and retested it twice at 1897.13 and 1896.96 in the first hour before slipping lower. The index found support near the upper level of the 1850 to 1865 Midrange Resistance Level (MLR) at 1863.26 with a little over an hour of trading left. After rebounding higher and slipping again, the index finished the session near this support at 1865.19.

Tuesday’s record high close of 1885.52 marked the recovery of the setback from the March 7 highest close of 1878.04. The lowest close in the fall from within the 100 L resistance was seen on March 14 at 1841.13 or 1.97% lower.

Tuesday’s push higher broke above the wedge formation the index was making against the 1883 resistance, and the index remained above this resistance breakout for three consecutive days before Friday’s pullback. Even though the index fell back below this resistance, the duration spent above it makes it very likely the direction move will continue higher.

Friday pushed to resistance at about 1897 three times before turning lower. It seems likely this drop was probably from the lower resistance band around the likely resistance at 1900. The drop found support near the upper resistance of the 1850 to 1865 Midrange Resistance Level (MRL) rebounding higher at 1863.26 and finishing the session near this resistance at 1865.09. If the index rebounds from or continues to find support in the former resistances within the 1850 to 1865 MRL, it would be a bullish indication.

Much of the buying during the week was seen in the first and final hours of trading with falloffs seen in between. The first and final hours are generally when institutional buyers are making trades, so these run ups would indicate the institutions are probably adding. This could be an early indication an influx of buying is happening in mutual funds.

These moves were mostly mimicked in Treasuries, as drops were seen in the first hour through Wednesday and final hour during the entire week. It seems possible IRA and 401K investors using institutional investments could be continuing to shed Treasury funds and moving into equity funds.

Pimco, the largest trader in US Treasuries has seen a constant outflow from its Treasury funds over the past 11 months, with this outflow rising concern in major stakeholders of the German parent company Allianz. See related story. Many feel that Treasuries could still be in the beginning of a very long term trend lower. Pimco recently added many equity fund choices to what were almost exclusively bond offerings in the past, reflecting a change in perspective even within the bond giant.

Pullbacks in Treasury prices that have sent interest rates higher are beginning to show up as new loans. The banks reported that March saw the largest increase in new loans since 2009. The absence of increases in new loans has been very detrimental to the recovery to this point, so these increases are a welcome sight. Despite the rhetoric to the contrary, “easing” of interest rates for long durations stifles loan growth. All the historical data points this out as a basic economic fact. Used in very short durations easing works to jumpstart the economy, but since easing robs from one part of the economy to give to another, the benefits of this action wear out very quickly.

Although the S&P 500 has remained relatively flat since the 90 E became active, it continues to seem possible the 90 E could be bullish in this appearance.

The +10 day indicator fell back to a low state as the index moved higher early in the past week without toggling on. Near toggles of this indicator are often bullish and the initial move higher makes it seem possible the near toggle on this indicator could be bullish in this instance.

Current Cautions

The index appears to be working its way higher through resistance within the 100 L seen from 1875 to 1925.

Since the 100 L has the potential to provide a significant pullback, there is reason to be cautious as the index works its way through this resistance. The 90 E is also active and is a potentially bearish indicator. Since a pullback within the 100 L has been seen, the presence of this potentially bearish indicator adds reason to remain cautious.

Two of the indexes reached significant pullbacks in recent selloffs and both also saw volatile daily moves with drops that exceeded 2%, which should edge caution somewhat higher.

However it seems unlikely a significant pullback will be seen in the 100 L at 1900 on the S&P 500, but if one were to be seen, it probably would not exceed 3% by much.

The 90 E is often active during volatile market conditions and the market often exhibits other bearish tendencies during its presence. Although most occurrences of this indictor covered in past articles were during bearish appearances, the indicator is not always bearish; it has also been seen during very bullish conditions. It seems possible the 90 E indicator could be bullish in this appearance.

Average daily volume decreased about 7% on the S&P 500 during the past week. The five day volume variance continued to decrease falling to about 17% in the past week.

Most of the indicators used to interpret market behavior appear to be maintaining a bullish stance and most volatility indicators appear to be moderating further. Market conditions do not appear ready to change this stance.

There continues to be many reasons to be bullish at the current time. Any pullbacks in stock prices seen along the way are probably a good opportunity to add.

If the index continues within the trend established off the crash lows, it seems possible it could reach the 2000 to 2100 level in eight to 17 months if it reaches this level near the upper trend line and within 35 to 41 months if it reaches this level near the lower trend line. The data suggests the Midrange Resistance Level (MRL) at 2035 to 2055 could hold the resistance level of concern within this range at 2040. More details of this potential resistance can be seen in past articles.

Please note there is no established resistance in the MRL levels before the index has reached these levels. Several instances have proven to hold resistance once reached; however MRL levels that the index has not yet reached are only the most likely levels that resistance will be seen based on research. Back tests of the data used to project these resistance levels work well, but they are not allows exact, and these resistances could react sooner or later than expected, it is also possible the resistance will not be seen at all.

Many of these sources of information were used in this article.

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Have a great day trading,
ronz

Access link to all of Ron’s past articles.

Disclosure: Ron has investments in BBY. Ron has no investments in ^NBI, ALXN, VRTX, BIIB, REGN, CELG, AMGN, ISRG, TRIP, NFLX, PCLN, EXPE, HAR, KMX, MU, GOOGL, FB, YHOO, ALTR, ETFC, SCHW or APC although he is interested in some of these stocks. Ron is currently about 85% invested long in stocks in his trading accounts. His investment level was reduced over the past week due to the purchase of one issue and dividend reinvestments in three issues with the cost of these purchases more than fully offset by the sale of four issues and dividend payments. Ron feels he is slightly oversold at the current time. However he has and will continue to sell stocks that reach long or short term targets and also continue to add stocks he feels are at a great value through a variety of buy orders. Ron will receive dividend payments from 6 issues in the coming week and 12 in the following week. If no further investment changes are made during this timeframe these dividend payments will reduce his investment level.

Some of the trades made during the past week may have been due to repositioning investments as discussed in a previous article.

Disclaimer: The information provided in the Stock Market Preview is Ron’s perception of the current conditions and what he thinks is the most probable outcome based on the current conditions, the data collected and extensive research he has done into this data along with other variables. It is intended to provoke thought of the possible market direction in his readers, not foretell the future. Ron does not claim to know what the stock market will do. If the stock market performs as expected, it only means he is applying the stock market history to the current conditions correctly. His perception of the data is not always correct.

This article is intended to provoke thought about investment possibilities. Acting on the information provided is at your own risk. You are urged to do your own research, and where appropriate, seek professional investment advice before acting on any information contained in these articles.

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