There is no doubt this has been a bear of a winter across the Pioneer Valley and for that matter most of the country. Outside of a brief respite in January from the winter conditions Old Man Winter has had a grip on us since early December in one form or another. Thursdays powerful storm was just another example of what has been tossed at us this season. It took some doing today but we finally got the snow showers to quit and later in the day the wind to subside as the massive low pressure that pounded the area yesterday is churning across the Canadian Maritimes this evening. However, another bundle of energy is making quick progress toward the mid-Atlantic coast and will become another big weather story on Saturday. This time around it will be our neighbors across eastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod that take the brunt of the next storm as we are only expecting a glancing blow locally.
Low pressure tracked eastward across the Tennessee Valley today to be positioned in southeast Virginia by daybreak Saturday. Along with that is energy diving southeast out of the Great Lakes. The system then tracks northeast and intensifies quickly over the open waters during Saturday and Saturday night. The forecast track brings the center of the storm southeast of Nantucket Island Saturday evening as it continues to deepen through the night.
Expect light snow or flurries to break out by midday on Saturday. The snow is expected to stay light into Saturday night with accumulations ranging from 2 to 3 inches with some local 4 inch totals possible. If the storm center tracks a bit farther north than currently projected we could see a bit more snow. This is going to be a very powerful ocean storm as it moves across the open waters and with that in mind any jog in the track can make a difference in snow impacts here.
Arctic air brings another dose of colder conditions Sunday and especially Sunday night into Monday. Then, a front approaches during Monday that will be associated with low pressure well to our northwest. Early thinking is snow Monday night and possibly mixing with rain Tuesday. However, there is a suggestion that low pressure develops along the frontal boundary to our south and that would lock in the colder air and keep the precipitation all snow and perhaps allow for a few inches of accumulation. More on that later in the weekend.
Thereafter, a bit of a milder trend with periods of rain possible mid to late week. Lots to be worked out for this period. I question how mild it does get with some forecasts leaning towards 50 degrees by late week. We’ll see.
72 Hour Outlook:
Friday night: Becoming cloudy by late night. Low temperatures in the low 20s. Winds will subside to 5 to 10 mph.
Saturday: Light snow developing by midday and continuing through the afternoon. High temperatures in the low 30s. Winds turning northeast 5 to 15 mph.
Saturday night: Light snow ends well before midnight followed by partial clearing. Windy. Lows in the teens. Northwest winds 12 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph.
Sunday: Partly to mostly sunny, windy and colder. Highs in the low to mid 20s. Gusty northwest to west winds up to 30 mph.
Sunday night: Fair skies, much colder and windy. Lows in the single digits to around 10 degrees. Gusty northwest winds subside late night.
Monday: Mostly sunny with below normal cold continuing. Highs in the low 20s.