The pleasant weather of the past two days will come to an end overnight as another round of unsettled weather moves into the Springfield area mid week. Low pressure in the Ohio Valley will spread precipitation toward western Massachusetts tonight. A secondary coastal low south of New England will move to a position near Long Island later Wednesday and it will be responsible for heavier and steadier precipitation during the course of the day tomorrow. The low will move very slowly across southeastern New England Thursday and should finally depart offshore before the weekend arrives.
We do remain on the north side of this system, meaning the cooler side of the storm. Once again there are issues with regard to precipitation type and how much snow accumulates. This storm will be more of an elevation snowstorm, with enough mild air in place to change the precipitation to mostly rain in the valleys. The farther north of Springfield and the higher in elevation you are the better opportunity for accumulating snow.
Precipitation should begin as snow for everyone before midnight and then mix with rain and or sleet in and around the Springfield area after midnight. The morning ride to work or school will be impacted, especially north of the city where it will be mostly snow. A wintry mix in greater Springfield changes to all rain for the afternoon. Meanwhile, it will remain mostly snow in the morning north of the city and in the hills, with a mix to sleet and rain at times. However, the higher in elevation you go the less likely there will be any mixing and this could mean a dramatic difference in the amount of accumulating snow.
With marginal temperatures it means a very close call as to where the changeover to rain occurs, who gets a wintry mix and finally where the snow line sets up during the course of this storm. An inch or two of snow in greater Springfield, 1 to 4 inches north of the city with as much as 3 to 5 inches in the hilly terrain is the current thinking on snow totals. And, it will be a pasty heavy wet snow and difficult to move for those of you who do get several inches.
The precipitation tapers down to rain and snow showers by evening and these conditions may stick around through Thursday as the low meanders over southern New England. Even on Friday we could still be dealing with showery weather before drier air moves in for the weekend, if all goes to plan.
Five Day Outlook:
Tonight: Snow overspreads the area, mixing with sleet and rain in greater Springfield. Low temperatures 30 to 34 degrees. Northeast winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph.
Wednesday: A wintry mix around greater Springfield will become all rain by afternoon. Snow north of the city and hills mixes with rain and sleet. Highs around 32 in the hills to near 40 in Springfield. East winds 10 to 20 mph.
Wednesday night: Precipitation tapers to rain showers throughout the Springfield area, snow showers in the hills. Temperatures remaining near steady from daytime highs.
Thursday and Thursday night: Periods of rain and snow showers, becoming snow showers at night. Highs 34 to 38. Overnight lows 27 to 31.
Friday and Friday night: Considerable cloudiness, still a chance of a snow shower. Highs 33 to 37. Lows 27 to 31.
Weekend Outlook: Partly to mostly cloudy. Highs 35 to 39 and overnight lows 22 to 26.