A ridge of high pressure will make a very brief appearance Tuesday as the upper level low that has given the area many days of cloudy conditions finally pulls away from the region. This means a fairly nice early March day on Tuesday, with a fair amount of sunshine and seasonal temperatures. Lighter winds will also make it feel quite comfortable outside.
The nice weather will be short lived as all eyes focus on a developing storm system to our south. For days now we have been talking about a storm system that will travel through the Tennessee Valley and should be positioned near the Virginia Capes Wednesday morning. As of Monday evening that scenario is still on target. However, what happens thereafter is the million dollar question. Most of the computer guidance still takes the storm well south of New England and southeast of Nantucket Wednesday and Thursday. One model, the GFS, has trended a more northerly track bringing the steadier and heavier precipitation into southern New England, including the greater Springfield area.
During Wednesday snow should break out, possibly mixed with rain in and around Springfield. At this point it should be light and more showery in nature rather than steady precipitation. These conditions will likely persist into Thursday night, with any mixing changing to all snow from the Wednesday night through Thursday night time period. Now, if the storm tracks further north all bets are off and we are looking at a significantly different picture, with heavy wet snow, gusty to potentially damaging winds, blowing and drifting snow and the likelihood of scattered power outages. Snowfall totals will be on the light side, say less than 4 inches, if the storm tracks well south of us. If it tracks closer the result will be several inches of snow and perhaps much more. By this time tomorrow evening we will have a much better handle on the impacts to the area.
As for coastal concerns, and this would only pertain to those who may have coastal interests along the south or east coast of Massachusetts, the National Weather Service has indicated that northeast winds may gust to 50 mph along the coast, perhaps even higher, and it will be a long duration period of gusty winds. This will lead to possible significant beach erosion and coastal flooding at time of high tides from Wednesday into Friday.
One final note and that is to say nothing has been finalized on what the impacts of this storm will be. Many details still need to be fine tuned and will be as we go through the day tomorrow. At least be aware that a significant storm “could” impact the area mid to late week.
Short Term Forecast:
Tuesday: Partly sunny and pleasant. High temperatures 40 to 44. Winds north 5 to 15 mph.
Tuesday night: Increasing clouds, becoming cloudy by morning. Lows 27 to 31. Light northeast winds.
Wednesday: Light snow, or snow showers, possibly mixed with rain in the greater Springfield area. Highs 34 to 38. Breezy by late in the day.
Wednesday night: Light snow, possibly becoming steadier and heavier. Becoming windy. Lows 27 to 31.
Thursday: Storm impacts continue. Intensity and snowfall amounts will depend on the storm track.
As always we suggest you stay tuned to local weather and news outlets for the latest updates, or follow us on our Twitter feed. https://twitter.com/NorthShore_Wx