Sunday provided another mild day but a cold front moved through the Pioneer Valley and this signals the beginning of a return to winter weather this week. Not only will it become cooler to colder through the week we are going to deal with an active weather pattern as well.
We have a few opportunities for precipitation this week. The first chance comes on Monday as low pressure moves along a frontal boundary to our south. This system is expected to track over the open waters well south of New England but just close enough to bring a band of snow over extreme southern New England, Cape Cod and the Islands, where an inch or two of snow may accumulate over that area. Locally, we may see a few flurries close to and along the Connecticut border. If you are traveling into Connecticut on Monday the further south you go the better chance you will drive into snow, especially south of Hartford. If that system were to track a bit further north it would bring the snow line closer to our area but that is an outlier at this point.
High pressure builds in Monday night and Tuesday as colder air continues to overspread the area. Not the bitter cold we saw many times in January but a return to more seasonably cold temperatures.
Later Tuesday you will begin to see the first signs of another storm approaching as high clouds start to filter in overhead. Low pressure moves out of the western Gulf of Mexico and heads northeastward through the Appalachians Tuesday. The system redevelops off the coast to our south with a center of low pressure situated near the Delaware coast by Wednesday morning. Snow is expected to break out Tuesday night and continue into Wednesday as the storm takes shape and strengthens offshore. This is going to be a much more formidable storm with plowable snow accumulations likely through Wednesday. It still is somewhat uncertain if the precipitation remains all snow as there is a chance that a mix with sleet and freezing rain occurs for a time Wednesday, mainly across the southern Pioneer Valley locations. If this were to happen then accumulations would be lower in those areas that do change to a wintry mix for a time. If it remains all snow it is likely that 6+ inches of snow accumulates. At least that is the way is looks now. This is still 2+ days away and the scenario can change. In any event, there will likely be interruptions to traffic and many school closings and or delays for Wednesday. The Wednesday morning commute could be very slow and trying for motorists.
By Thursday the storm is gone and we dry out with colder air following in behind as we fall to below normal temperatures for Thursday and Friday. Highs may not reach 30 during the afternoon with lows dipping close to 10 at night.
Saturday there will be another opportunity for snow as another storm system moves toward us from the south. It is very uncertain at this point what the impacts will be.
72 Hour Outlook:
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Chance of flurries. Colder, high temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Light northerly winds.
Monday night: Clearing skies and colder. Lows in the upper teens to low 20s. Winds near calm.
Tuesday: A sunny start with increasing high clouds in the afternoon. Seasonably cold, highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds.
Tuesday night: Becoming cloudy with snow likely developing. Lows in the mid to upper 20s. Winds turn northeast at less than 10 mph.
Wednesday and Wednesday night: Snow likely, possibly mixing with sleet and freezing rain for a time, especially across the southern valley. Precipitation tapers off and ends at night. Highs in the low 30s. Nighttime lows falling into the teens.