Tomorrow is Ground Hog Day, but by the feel of things one might think it was Easter Sunday. The weather here on Long Island has been more akin to April weather lately rather than what one would expect for December, January and now February. Temperatures in the region creeped all the way up into the sixties today, with weather gauges at Brookhaven National Laboratory reading a balmy 63-degree high temperature around 1 p.m. this afternoon. It’s been a mild winter on the island, to say the least, but there’s really no need to believe the apocalypse is at hand.
From the moment the word ‘snow’ was included in the forecast for Halloween weekend way back in October, many Long Islanders were bracing for an early and brutal winter. What they’ve gotten since, however, has been a totally different story. For the better part of the three months since that late fall snow surprise, there’s been very little snowfall and plenty of unseasonably warm temperatures, making some people wonder what the heck is going on.
It’s been a strange winter all over the globe, as freezing temperatures have hit much of Europe and Asia with abandon, leaving about 80 people dead from the cold, and snowfall has covered much of Asia, an unusual event. In the meantime the brutal weather conditions that usually affect much of the United States have stayed up north, affecting only the northernmost reaches of North America. Parts of Alaska have gotten more than 300 inches of snow so far, more than 10 feet above normal, and a low of 66 degrees below zero was recorded in Yukon just this past weekend.
So why is this happening? Is it global warming? The end of times? Actually, the culprit is a change in Arctic winds that are pushing the winter weather southwards in other places, while at the same time North Atlantic winds are blocking that frigid mass from plunging down towards the Lower 48.
The two phenomena, known as the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, are in an unusual state this winter. Normally the two wind streams are in synch, resulting in the cold weather and snow reaching far down into the North American land mass, but lately they’ve been moving in opposite directions, trapping the cold air up north and leaving Long Island and much of the United States with mild temperatures and very little snowfall.
So for anybody out there who’s been worried about the spring-like temperatures this winter being a sign of something ominous, don’t fret. For the foreseeable future the weather is not expected to change all that much, with temperatures mostly in the 40’s and not a flake of snow in the forecast for at least the next ten days, but of course things could change.
In the meantime, enjoy the nice weather while it lasts, and hope that the Malverne Mel, Holtsville Hal, Staten Island Chuck, and even Punxatawney Phil don’t see their shadows on Ground Hog Day. Otherwise, we just may get a winter after all.
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