Everywhere people look, they are hearing about the rise of China, the emergence of a multipolar world, and the decline of the United States.
Books are published, essays and articles written, all saying the same thing: China will rule the world.
More and more, howver, it is becoming apparent that China will not rule the world. More and more, it is becoming apparent that China is facing an uphill battle as it seeks to liberalize its economy.
Last week, Dr. Dan Cox featured one of this reporter's essays on his new blog, Blast Shields Up! In that article, I argue that China's accession to superpower status is not such a sure thing:
Domestic inadequacies and a loss of international prestige has left a growing number of scholars, analysts, and other experts worried about the imminent decline of the United States of America (U.S.). This coincides with the assumptions of Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST), which presupposes the cyclical transition of world leadership. Said differently, the reigning world leader could soon be replaced by a new power. Over the last few decades military thinkers, journalists, policymakers, and scholars alike, have been watching with a wary eye, the rapid rise of China. Understandably, some are uneasy about the emergence of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as a new superpower. Given the apparent decline of the U.S., many experts even wonder if the PRC is positioning itself to succeed the U.S. as global hegemon. Its impressive economic growth and formidable military buildup could indicate that China is preparing for just such an occasion.
But is China’s hegemonic accession inevitable? This is the question being asked by a small, but growing, chorus of futurists; and their arguments are rather persuasive, too... [T]he Middle Kingdom’s internal problems are too numerous to be considered lightly. Since the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is engaged in a desperate balancing act in an effort to maintain China’s renaissance (and thus, its hold on power), these problems could seriously derail the nation’s growth, and its prospects of obtaining global hegemony right along with it.
Read the whole essay here; then, share your thoughts below.
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