Raleigh Weather Discussion
My apologies for no discussion yesterday. I have been dealing with some job issues that are pressing on me and I may be able to share with you soon. Hopefully I will have more time and focus the rest of the week to keep you updated.
There has been some significant ice accrual overnight and this morning in the NC mountains and foothills. Checking out the public information statements I see some reports of 0.25-0.5 inch ice accrual reports in some of those areas with a 0.1 inch of ice in areas of the foothills. The Triad so far has only reported a light glaze. The wedge has locked in and areas of the NW piedmont and northern foothills are still reporting freezing rain as of 9am. Temps will rise through the morning and most areas should be over to rain in a few hours. However, there could be some ice accrual over the next few hours in those areas so stay tuned. Again, my apologies for not warning of this earlier.
The storm system will continue to spread moderate to heavy rain across the state today with the threat of some severe storms in SE NC. The storm system should depart overnight.
The remainder of the week looks dry with temperatures falling below normal.
There is a lot of uncertainty with the weekend. An anomalous pattern sets up across the US, a rather cold pattern for early march. The models are closing of a 500mb low over the Tennessee Valley by Saturday which often times can be the precursor to a significant storm off the southeast coast. However, the upper low is not particularly strong and the models are showing only light precipitation or the storm system being weak and far offshore. It would not be surprising to see the models bring this system closer to the coast and be stronger with time. If this system does take shape it could be a wintry weather threat. So stay tuned.
Another potential threat is around next Wednesday. The last two runs of the ECMWF model has shown the potential for accumulating snow across NC/VA/TN and perhaps SC. However, the track of this storm will be critical. Again there is some uncertainty with this as usual, but there is potential again, so stay tuned.
National Longer Range Discussion
Again, there certainly is no indication yet of an early spring. The GFS/ECMWF Ensembles remain on a cold page through the next 16 days for the central and eastern US. The NAO remains negative as well as the AO, and we also see the EPO turn negative and the PNA remain positive at least for a while. These are cold signals for the US. Last night’s Euro weeklies remain cold through much of March, while the CFS weeklies are in agreement with some potential being shown for the pattern to break down for the last 1/3 of March.
So I expect colder than normal weather to stick around for the next few weeks for the central and eastern US with probably more chances for late season winter storms. The pattern may finally break by late March.