I used to play chess a lot. Started as a kid, then as computers came along I got ChessMaster. Add another decade or two then I taught my son. Haven't played for perhaps 15 years until a few weeks ago. It was the 3d game, I think, that I began to see the board again. Dependent protections got deeper and deeper on both sides. My opponent finally created an opening. A few pieces later and the tide was mine.
The Middle East is very much like a mature chess match. Egypt sat docile for the most part under Mubarak. The population wanted something different, but didn't think far enough ahead to just what that something different would be. The Muslim Brotherhood dances to the fore. Ut oh, break out the burkas! Then Obama made a crucial mistake - he not only backed the MB, he doubled down when the true rulers of Egypt for decades upon decades - the military - ousts them. Egypt is now a rouge Queen prancing the chess board. All she wants is a new consort, and Russia or China (or both) will be all too happy to fill the dance card.
Iran was docile, too, until 1979. It jumped ugly, Jimmy Carter flailed, and then Reagan would have none of it. Russia was all too happy to fill the void.
Lebanon in the past - docile (to a degree); today, Hezbollah has virtual free reign. Missile batteries launch from inside neighborhoods, yet the United Nations says and does nothing.
Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Pakistan are all a mixture of strong arms, unrest, and corruption.
The Palestinians? It is to laugh. They've never wanted their own country or a peace accord with Israel. They got dumped on the land they occupy by the rest of the Arab countries. Recall how much press coverage Jordan's eviction of Palestinians living in Jordan got over the past few years - practically none. The Palestinians are the Arabian Step-child - disliked, ignored, and made the problem of others to solve. If they had their own country, they'd be accountable. That's the last thing they want.
What did the Iraq/Afghanistan War solve anything? Well, with the American Liberals screaming at the Bushes to not make it about oil - and requiring us to not enter into any contracts to develop Iraqi oil - created another opening for China. Duh.
So into this mix of Iran-Lebanon-Egypt-Iraq-China-Russia v. Saudi Arabia-Jordan-Israel-United States enters Syria. Syria, of course, has been aligned with Iraq and Russia for quite some time. And who, pray tell, are the "freedom fighters"? None other than Obama's BFF Muslim Brotherhood. Gee, can both sides lose?
Now we hear of the use of chemical weapons. Liberals are certain it was Assad. Conservatives are saying that makes no sense - the winning side doesn't violate international law just to quicken the process of victory. Apparently we can rest assured that chemical weapons, most likely some nerve gas, was used. Is it below the MB to use it on their own people in order to give Obama an excuse to intervene? You should be able to guess my answer.
Obama has leaked the two-day "punishment" response. Guess he wants a quick feel for how it will go over domestically. I'll tell him - you either enter a fight to vanquish your opponent or you don't enter at all. You don't walk up to your opponent and slap him, saying "Next time I'll be really mad!" Just silly. No, the American public will have a had time accepting the guns and glory whitewash they'll see on the ABCCBSBNC Evening News.
But let's presume that is precisely where he's going. In and out - easier to get forgiveness than permission. The US and Great Britain levels some government-owned aspirin factories in Syria. Let's walk through the aftermath ...
1. The UN Security Council calls an emergency meeting. There will be no placating Russia or China, both permanent members of the UNSC with veto power. Neither will GB or the US (with hope!) back down. Nothing will come out of the Security Council. Both sides will veto anything that condemns or authorizes. If the Legacy Media were legitimate, this result would be a net loss for Obama. Alas, they aren't, and it'll be left to alternative press sources to label it as such.
2. The fun-loving MB, flush with lawyers, guns, and money from the Saudis and the US, will march forward toward the allegedly weakened Assad strongholds. But, wait, doesn't that mean urban warfare? Oh, maybe we can run a thousand sorties a day on their behalf. Naw, they'd violate the outcome of 1. above. OK, so urban warfare it is. Refugees disperse in every direction. Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guards fight openly for Assad. MB starts running out of people will to die for Allah! Reinforcements arrive just in the nick of time from ... uh ... well, sorry, the Egyptian MB is kinda busy. Stalemate? For a while, until ...
3. Assad, a trained dentist, knows how to spread pain. Everyone has watched just how well Iranian missiles launched from Gaza and Lebanon work - set up, light the fuse, and run like hell! Half of them stay within several feet of the "launch pad," while the other half land somewhere - over - I - think - that -way - not - really - sure. But remember that Russia has only pulled back on the public arms transactions. The stealth shipments got through. Want to cause the most amount of havoc and confusion and consequences? Launch towards Israel. A few will land in the West Bank, I'm sure. But if you aim it right, you should be able to avoid Jordan.
Now, we have a war! Street fighting in Damascus. Missiles flying in all directions. Israel responding at both Syria and Lebanon. Palestinians in prison-like lock down. Iran thumping its decrepit hand on the table mumbling something about pushing Israel into the sea. Israel, understandably, wants Iran to shut up, so it gets the Saudis approval to use their air space - and out of the 21st Century goes Iran's peaceful, medical-only nuclear program.
And the small voices of reason rise ... Russia and China at the United Nations. Peacekeeping troops to prop up Assad, to keep the Palestinians from their rock-hurling ways, and to force Hezbollah away from the Israeli border.
All because Obama can't manage the United Nations Security Counsel as W. and his father did before launch.
Hunh. Great Nobel Peace Prize winner you got there.