Skip to main content
  1. News
  2. Weather & Climate

Snow totals for Jan 21 2014: Grade my forecast

See also

The largest storm in 3 years for most but at BWI, but still set a new record. The official report for Baltimore was 7.0” for the entire storm. It is a little confusing since the midnight climate report was 5.3” at the airport, which still breaks the former record for January 21st of 2” set in 1982. What is confusing is that the accumulating snow stopped at midnight, so I suspect the formal report will be adjusted later.

More Photos

How much did you get?

The maps in the slide show cover various regions around Maryland and the Mid Atlantic. Please note that these are NWS spotter reports many of which are delayed… not updated after the storm ended. So many of these places will report higher final results. There is plenty of support from the reports I have received on my Facebook page and Twitter feed.

GRADE MY FORECAST:

One thing I pride myself on beside hard work put into a forecast, is accountability. That means after good and bad results I still acknowledge what I said and how it compares to the results.

This is the closest I can come to an A+, but will give myself just an A since I can't confirm the final southern MD result. However I did get lulled a bit by the computer models ignoring the storm. That was unlike the January 2nd storm when I consistently called out the model errors and stayed with it all the way. Please read my account below, see my snow call maps compared to the results, and then go to my post of this article on my Facebook Page to give me your grade.

This storm was first mentioned 5 days earlier on my Facebook post (the date in the title read Jan 22 instead of 21) with the Canadian Model outlook. Over the following 24 hours, this model lost the energy. I have trusted this model over any other this season and many other winters. So I was a little confused why it was lost, but it was hard to continue to push 100%. So I will to take credit all the way, but I did not give up on something happening. I kept snow in some form in for Tuesday in every post.

In fact it was Sunday when I saw the GFS model hint at the storm once again.

As soon as it appeared we were going to get the original expectation, I didn’t hold back. Considering the arctic air, high snow ratios, and the trend for storms to over achieve this winter, I went bold on snow totals. It was before the first flakes fell that I made a slight adjustment even higher. You can read that below and I think you will find that this worked out pretty well.

From my last report:

Snowfall

I made one slight adjustment to my initial snowfall map. I’ve expanded the 6”-10”+ plus region south of Annapolis and north of York/Lancaster in PA. I have also added a pink zone to include an 8”-12”+ zone along the MD/PA line and into Philadelphia. This could be much higher, but will be hard to decipher with blowing and drifting snow. Consider the cold temperatures will bring high snow ratios. See more about that here.

Again, I would like to hear your take on this. While I work independently and consult for decision support, I value the trust many have placed in my forecasting. My reputation is the reason I have been able to have a successful first year for my Kid Weather App and hope many will support my effort for my next app designed for grown ups on the way.

Kid Weather App

This is a great time to work off the active weather and see the app I made with my son (when he was 6 years old). It won a Parents Choice Award, was listed on Mashable.com's top 10 list of apps to teach kids science, and has been downloaded in 29 countries. We have over 400 items of trivia plus live weather and forecasts for kids. It's available on iTunes and for Android on Google Play and Amazon. See more and links for your device at kidweatherapp.com

Related Articles

Weather terms and snow ratios

Snow reports for Jan 2 2014 storm

Outlook: Above normal snowy winter

All local ski resorts now open, earliest in 13 years

Ravens play in extreme weather again- Snow and wild game against Vikings

My Winter Forecasting Manifesto

Expressions from a weatherman

Sign up for email alerts to my articles for Baltimore Weather Examiner

Also keep up to date via

Facebook: Justin Berk, Meteorologist

Twitter @JustinWeather

Instagram: justinweather

Snow Report List (just for MD and Washington DC) from NWS Sterling VA

...DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...
1 NNE NATIONAL ZOO 7.0 1156 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
1 E WASHINGTON 6.0 1030 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ENE WASHINGTON 4.6 927 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SW NATIONAL ARBORE 4.5 835 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
WASHINGTON 3.8 745 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 SW AMERICAN UNIVER 3.5 515 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

MARYLAND

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...
2 NNW FROSTBURG 7.0 506 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ECKHART MINES 6.5 520 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
FROSTBURG 4.8 402 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 S ECKHART MINES 4.0 315 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...ANNE ARUNDEL COUNTY...
SEVERN 7.2 809 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 N BWI AIRPORT 7.0 1147 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
ODENTON 7.0 940 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 SSW SOUTH GATE 6.0 523 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
2 NNE CROFTON 5.5 647 AM 1/22 NWS EMPLOYEE
SEVERNA PARK 5.0 946 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
3 SSW CROWNSVILLE 5.0 759 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NW RIVA 5.0 1045 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
BELVEDERE HEIGHTS 4.5 400 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
EDGEWATER 4.5 707 AM 1/22 PUBLIC
1 ESE CHURCHTON 4.3 1200 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
BWI AIRPORT 4.1 700 PM 1/21 AIRPORT
1 NNE OWINGS 4.0 1202 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
GREEN HAVEN 3.8 630 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...BALTIMORE COUNTY...
PHOENIX 11.0 1107 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
2 NW LONG GREEN 10.0 1030 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E BENTLEY SPRINGS 10.0 748 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
JACKSONVILLE 9.5 825 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 E COCKEYSVILLE 9.3 925 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 WNW HEREFORD 9.0 1157 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 E WHITE MARSH 8.8 1252 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W PARKTON 8.5 930 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E OELLA 8.0 930 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSE TOWSON 7.8 1020 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SW DUNDALK 7.7 935 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNW ROSEDALE 7.6 1052 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 E PERRY HALL 7.5 1100 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
PARKTON 7.5 1150 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SSE TOWSON 7.5 1053 PM 1/21 BROADCAST MEDIA
1 W HAMPTON 7.0 715 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE GLYNDON 6.8 852 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
ESSEX 6.3 614 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
REISTERSTOWN 6.3 721 PM 1/21 CO-OP OBSERVER
PARKVILLE 6.3 456 AM 1/22 PUBLIC
2 NE GRANITE 6.3 644 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSW DUNDALK 6.0 600 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NW REISTERSTOWN 5.0 424 PM 1/21 CO-OP OBSERVER
2 NE CATONSVILLE 4.5 415 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...BALTIMORE CITY...
1 N FELLS POINT 8.0 1135 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
PIMLICO 7.5 903 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 ESE ARLINGTON 7.5 1030 PM 1/21 BROADCAST MEDIA
2 W CARROLL 4.0 435 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CALVERT COUNTY...
NORTH BEACH 5.0 740 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 WSW TRACYS LANDING 4.7 943 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 N SAINT LEONARD 3.9 842 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 WNW HUNTINGTOWN 3.8 1130 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CARROLL COUNTY...
2 SE WESTMINSTER 10.8 934 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 NNW GAITHER 9.9 900 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 SW WESTMINSTER 9.5 757 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSW MANCHESTER 9.5 1130 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W WESTMINSTER 9.5 930 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
NEW WINDSOR 9.0 702 PM 1/21 COUNTY EMRG MGMT
ELDERSBURG 9.0 830 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
1 S REESE 9.0 325 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 SE WINFIELD 8.4 1030 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
4 WSW REESE 8.0 358 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
4 NE MILLERS 7.7 1057 PM 1/21 CO-OP OBSERVER
3 WSW LINEBORO 7.5 544 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...CHARLES COUNTY...
1 S LA PLATA 4.6 1056 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
2 ESE BRYANS ROAD 4.1 958 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
ST. CHARLES 4.0 703 AM 1/22 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 SW DENTSVILLE 3.8 1230 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
DENTSVILLE 3.5 1129 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
3 ESE ST. CHARLES 3.2 802 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

...FREDERICK COUNTY...
3 NW FREDERICK 10.0 631 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
2 NE JEFFERSON 9.5 1008 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W BALLENGER CREEK 9.5 521 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 E WALKERSVILLE 9.1 545 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
NEW MARKET 8.3 700 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NE POINT OF ROCKS 8.0 700 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
BALLENGER CREEK 8.0 645 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SSW MARSTON 7.5 415 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NW NEW MARKET 7.3 700 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
3 SSW BALLENGER CREE 7.2 445 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NE BALLENGER CREEK 6.5 545 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...HARFORD COUNTY...
2 E SCARBORO 11.2 1055 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
BEL AIR 9.6 845 PM 1/21 SHERIFF OFFICE
1 NNE BEL AIR 8.5 1145 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
WHITEFORD 8.0 902 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
1 W BEL AIR 8.0 830 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE

...HOWARD COUNTY...
HIGHLAND 8.0 900 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
2 N COLUMBIA 8.0 1000 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SE GAITHER 8.0 1000 PM 1/21 COCORAHS
ELLICOTT CITY 7.8 828 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
1 WSW SAVAGE 7.3 1105 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
WOODSTOCK 7.0 1000 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
1 SSE SIMPSONVILLE 6.9 1100 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 NW COLUMBIA 6.8 1000 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 W ELKRIDGE 6.5 1047 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...MONTGOMERY COUNTY...
1 E MONTGOMERY VILLA 9.8 840 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
GAITHERSBURG 9.0 959 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
1 ENE GAITHERSBURG 8.8 800 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 ESE GERMANTOWN 8.0 801 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
DAMASCUS 8.0 645 PM 1/21 COUNTY EMRG MGMT
1 NW GAITHERSBURG 7.8 1130 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SSW GERMANTOWN 7.5 827 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 NNE WASHINGTON GRO 7.5 1001 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SE DAMASCUS 7.5 1015 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSW OLNEY 7.5 630 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNW FOUR CORNERS 7.3 1107 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SSW DAMASCUS 7.3 825 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SW DERWOOD 7.1 746 AM 1/22 NWS EMPLOYEE
CLARKSBURG 7.1 1022 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
3 SSW DAMASCUS 7.0 900 PM 1/21 CO-OP OBSERVER
1 SSE COLESVILLE 7.0 1104 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE NORBECK 6.8 1000 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 S FOUR CORNERS 6.5 1010 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 SW ROCKVILLE 6.5 815 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
GERMANTOWN 6.2 922 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
ROCKVILLE 6.1 627 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
2 SSW ROCKVILLE 6.1 900 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SSW MONTGOMERY VIL 6.0 949 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 ENE GERMANTOWN 6.0 700 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 W GARRETT PARK 6.0 1032 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
2 N DARNESTOWN 5.8 600 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 NE POTOMAC 5.5 830 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE TAKOMA PARK 5.0 1019 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WNW OLNEY 4.8 723 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 NNE FAIRLAND 4.5 1002 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 ESE WHEATON 4.0 419 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 WSW WHITE OAK 4.0 656 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY...
1 SSW BELTSVILLE 6.0 445 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
N LAUREL 5.3 616 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 SE LANGLEY PARK 5.0 919 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
COLLEGE PARK 4.8 823 PM 1/21 NWS EMPLOYEE
1 SW COLLEGE PARK 4.5 1100 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 SW OXON HILL 3.0 701 PM 1/21 CO-OP OBSERVER

...ST. MARYS COUNTY...
2 W CALIFORNIA 7.8 806 AM 1/22 TRAINED SPOTTER
BRETON BAY 5.8 1045 PM 1/21 BROADCAST MEDIA
1 WNW CUCKOLD CREEK 4.2 702 AM 1/22 COCORAHS
4 SSE LEONARDTOWN 1.3 915 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER
1 S LOVEVILLE 0.5 350 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

...WASHINGTON COUNTY...
S HAGERSTOWN 7.0 654 PM 1/21 PUBLIC
1 E HAGERSTOWN 6.0 640 PM 1/21 BROADCAST MEDIA
1 NE FUNKSTOWN 5.0 712 PM 1/21 TRAINED SPOTTER

Advertisement