With temperatures in the 40s Monday, that's the warmest readings Long Islanders will see for at least a week. An Arctic front will come through Monday night as Tuesday morning lows reach the teens. Temperatures won't rebound too much as a winter storm gathers and passes just offshore.
Snow will begin around midday Tuesday, give or take, as the snow envelops the Island from west to east. It picks up in intensity into the evening and overnight, and ends around sunrise Wednesday.
Winds will pick up late Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning during the height of the storm. Gusts may reach 30-35 mph. Although blizzard conditions may bet for a time, there is not enough confidence in the forecast to call the storm a blizzard by criteria (three hours of 1/4 mile visibility and 35 m.p.h. winds).
The heaviest snow will begin just before the height of the evening rush on Tuesday, a nightmare in the making. Snowfall rates could reach one inch per hour during the heaviest snows. Snow bands may set up, but the forecast calls for fairly uniform amounts across the Island, with highest accumulations towards the East End thanks to the storm track.
Snowfall totals range from 6"-10" for Nassau County, 8"-12" for western Suffolk County, and as much as 14" for the East End.
As of this writing, a winter storm warning is in effect for noon Tuesday through 6 a.m. Wednesday.
Expect the Arctic Blast to continue, exacerbated by the new snowpack. Highs may stay in the teens through Thursday with morning lows in the single digits.