A slight moderation in temperatures is forecast into the coming weekend over the Capital Region. A series of weak disturbances will attempt to cross the region, however, their passage will be hampered by lack of moisture and conditions unfavorable for their continued growth. Thus, a few clouds are all that is expected across the Capital Region with either of these systems. One such system will approach during the day today, but likely not make it past northern and central New York before decaying.
Low pressure over southern Canada, will glide a warm front through the region, barely noticed aside from some cloud cover, on Saturday morning. The cold front with this low pressure area will begin a slow decent toward the region, from the New York and Canada border, Saturday night. Precipitation associated with this feature looks to be behind the actual frontal system itself, as opposed to in advance of the boundary. In addition, the front looks to stall over the northern tier as low pressure develops over the upper Great Lakes.
Meanwhile, further south, low pressure develops over the Gulf Coast Saturday, and moves to the Carolina’s on Sunday morning. This system accelerates north and east to be over coastal New England Sunday evening, and the Canadian Maritimes by early Monday morning. A large shield of precipitation will be coaxed northward as both Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean moisture is utilized by this area of disturbed weather, and moisture utilization becomes optimized by late Sunday afternoon and evening.
Temperatures look to be warm enough to support rainfall at the onset of precipitation Sunday afternoon over the Capital Region. Some of the rainfall may come down at a moderate to heavy clip at times. Cold air will be lurking to the north and west of the Capital Region by late Sunday night, as the coastal system moves away from the region. This will allow a cold front, with a bone-chilling Arctic airmass behind it, to lunge toward and through our region during the morning hours Monday, from the west. Snow showers and squalls will accompany the frontal system along with increasing winds.
Some of the coldest air of the season thus far will pay the region a visit for the start of the new year. In addition, some lake effect snow showers may also impact portions of the region through this time frame, thanks to a parade of disturbances sweeping through that will continue to reinforce the chilly airmass.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
Today: Mostly sunny. High near 35. West winds 5-15 MPH.
Tonight: Partly cloudy. Low 20-25. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High near 40. Southwest winds 5-15 MPH.
Saturday Night: Variably cloudy. Low near 25. Light southwest winds.
Sunday: Increasing clouds with a chance of rain during the afternoon. High near 40. Southwest winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 80 percent.
Monday: A 60 percent chance of rain changing to snow. High near 30 and low near 10.
New Year's Eve: Partly sunny, blustery, and cold. A 40 percent chance of snow showers. High near 25 and low near 5.
New Year's Day: Mostly sunny, blustery, and cold with a 30 percent chance of a snow shower. High near 15 and low near 5.
Thursday: Mostly cloudy and cold with a 30 percent chance of light snow. High near 20 and low near 5.