Severe weather possible by Tuesday afternoon; heavy rain likely

Severe weather possible by Tuesday afternoon

A strong storm system will move into the state by Tuesday afternoon with the possibility of severe weather.

A frontal boundary, which brought scattered rains across the state Monday morning will move back to the north as a warm front during the day on Tuesday.

This front will be the focus for heavy rains later tonight and early on Tuesday with widespread rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches over the next 24 hours.

With the passage of the warm front, high temperatures will soar on Tuesday into the upper 60s and low 70s as strong southerly winds transport warm moist air north across the state.

Winds will increase by midday to between 15 and 20 mph with frequent gusts of 30 to 35 mph by mid afternoon. For this reason, a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for Central, portions of Southern and portions of Northern Mississippi.

The dramatic increase in temperatures and moisture with much colder air surging south and east will set the stage for the potential of severe storms during the afternoon and evening hours, mainly across Central and Southern Mississippi, but all areas across the state stand a risk of experiencing severe weather depending on how far north the warm front progresses. (Current projections are for the warm front to progress at least as far north as a Greenville to Columbus line)

The main risks with any storms that become severe will be damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.

National Weather Service Statement:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA AS A VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION.

IN ADDITION, HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BECOME A CONCERN AS WELL ESPECIALLY WHERE STORMS TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREA.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A strong cold front should sweep through the state Tuesday evening, ending the severe weather threat. (before midnight)

Everyone should stay updated on the latest weather information as it becomes available on Tuesday.

While November is primarily the main month for severe during the Fall/Autumn Season, this November remained fairly calm. And a trend the Jackson Weather Examiner has been studying is when there is a relatively calm month of November for severe weather, there has tended to be an increase during the month of December.

(Severe weather free months of November since 1990 and Decembers that followed)