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September 2014 outlook issued

ENSO Predictions
ENSO Predictions
International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society

The Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures continue to warm but the neutral conditions continue prevail. An El Niño Watch remains in effect. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issues a watch when conditions are favorable for the development of El Niño or La Niña conditions within the next six months.

Weekly sea surface temperature anomaly
NOAA/ESRL/PSD

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) discussion explains that “Current atmospheric and oceanic observations suggest a transition from ENSO-neutral to El Niño conditions is underway, though there continues to be conflicting indications and significant uncertainty as to how strong this El Niño may get.” They expect “development of El Niño in late summer or early autumn. Most forecasts indicate El Niño to peak at weak or moderate strength in late autumn into early winter.”

The heat will likely continue for the West Coast but there is some relief in the drought expected for the Southern Plains. At this point there are no clear climate signals relating to West Michigan temperature or precipitation for the month of September or for the longer range of September - November so the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) forecast is for an equal chance of above, below, and near normal conditions.

The attached slideshow has the official forecast maps.

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