Scott Walker's latest ad attacking Mary Burke, his Democratic opponent, hits her hard. The narrator uses a grim-sounding voice to powerfully deliver this hard-hitting message:
Mary Burke is trying to sell us on her experience at her family business. But she forgot to mention that they make 99.5% of their bikes overseas in places like China, where her company has outsourced jobs for years. Yet while Burke's company makes almost all of their bikes overseas, taxpayers have had to foot the bill to retrain the Wisconsin workers who lost their jobs here. Mary Burke, job creator? Not so much.
That ad will hurt Mary Burke with her political base. Burke is trying to portray herself as a moderate Democrat with a capitalist streak. This ad highlights the fact that her family business is in the business of shipping jobs overseas, which is something that Democrats hate.
There are plenty of union supporters of Democrats that don't like outourcing of jobs. We'll know for certain how they'll react to this commercial this November. Still, at minimum, this is an ad Burke can't ignore. She has to respond to it. If she doesn't, these accusations become verifiable facts in the public's mind.
Up until this point, Burke has kept this a tight race. It'll be interesting to see what the polling shows a month from now. Will the first polls after this ad show a significant shift in the race? Considering how well negative ads work against candidates who don't have universal name recognition, that's a definite possibility.
If Gov. Walker opens a lead that's outside the poll's margin of error, that might demoralize Democratic voters, which will hurt Democrats down-ticket in Wisconsin.
This will be one of a handful of races to watch over the next month. If it starts slipping away from the Democrats, Burke's money might dry up. Most likely, though, is that the Democratic Governors Association, aka DGA, will still pump money into the race to beat Gov. Walker up in case he runs for president in 2016.