A stalled frontal boundary, which has been in the same general location since Friday, will hold its position through the day today. Thus, much the same weather is forecast for today as was experienced yesterday. That being some morning showers ending, giving way to abundant cloud cover, widely scattered showers, and near average temperatures. Satellite pictures do indicate some breaks in the cloud cover trying to work their way north across portions of the Catskills, Mid-Hudson, and Schoharie valleys this morning, however, any sunny breaks are likely to fill back in with overcast conditions as the day wears on. The better chances for rain and shower activity today look to be confined to areas north of the immediate Capital Region, where better atmospheric moisture and dynamics are in place. The stalled boundary takes on warm frontal characteristics later this afternoon and evening, and thus, a better chance for light rainfall looks to occur, region wide, by this evening.
The Capital Region will experience a cold frontal passage late in the afternoon and evening on Monday. This frontal system will bring a better chance for moderate to heavy intensity rainfall. A few thunderstorms are also possible, and indications are that some of these storms may be quite strong. Warmer temperatures are forecast for Monday, as the warm front looks to lift north of the region, allowing a brief surge in temperatures before the actual cold front cools us back down by Tuesday.
Some residual morning showers on Tuesday should yield to a mix of sun and clouds, along with a northwesterly breeze, by afternoon. Temperatures will be back to near seasonal averages by this point. High pressure will build into the region once again by midweek, and looks to bring us another string of fair and dry weather straight through next weekend.
...Below is the official forecast for the Capital Region and vicinity...
Today: Areas of morning drizzle and fog. More clouds than sunshine for the afternoon with another chance of showers late in the day. High near 65. Southeast winds 5-10 MPH. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Tonight: Scattered showers and areas of drizzle possible. Patchy fog forming overnight. Low near 60. Light southeast winds. Chance of rain is 40 percent.
Monday: Intervals of clouds and sunshine and mild with showers and thunderstorms developing by afternoon. Some of the storms may be strong. High 70-75. South winds 10-15 MPH with some higher gusts possible in the vicinity of any thunderstorm. Chance of rain is 80 percent.
Monday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely during the evening, diminishing to scattered showers late at night. Low near 55. Southwest winds 5-15 MPH early, shifting northwest 5-15 MPH after midnight. There may be some higher wind gusts in the vicinity of any thunderstorm. Chance of rain is 70 percent before midnight, and 40 percent after midnight.
Tuesday: A slight chance of a morning shower. Otherwise, becoming mostly sunny, breezy, and cooler. High in the upper 60’s. Northwest winds 10-20 MPH with some higher gusts possible at times. Chance of rain in the morning is 20 percent.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. High near 65 and low near 45.
Thursday: Mostly sunny. High near 65 and low near 45.
Friday: Mostly sunny. High near 70 and low near 40.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High near 70 and low near 45.
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