A new survey released this morning by Public Policy Polling shows Rick Santorum with a 15-point lead over Mitt Romney among Republican voters from across the nation. If the poll is accurate, it is remarkable show of momentum for Santorum. Other polls released this week from Fox News, Gallup, and Rasmussen Reports all show Romney having at least a 10-point lead among Republican voters. The PPP poll suggests that Santorum’s reach may extend beyond the states he has won already, perhaps threatening Romney’s “inevitability” as the Republican nominee.
It should be noted that PPP is the only pollster showing Santorum with a national lead. More data from other sources may help confirm PPP’s results or cast PPP’s conclusions in doubt.
Still, there are reasons to suggest that this newest poll may be accurate. PPP’s poll was taken February 9-10, and therefore was more likely to include any bounce in support Santorum may have received after clean sweep victories in Colorado, Missouri, and Minnesota last Tuesday. PPP is a reputable pollster that has been rated highly by Nate Silver of the New York Times. In the past PPP has been accurate in reporting results that differ from other pollsters. For example, PPP was first pollster to report that Republican Scott Brown had a lead over Democrat Martha Coakley in race to replace the late Senator Ted Kennedy. Brown subsequently won the special election against Coakley.
Of course, even if PPP’s survey is accurate there is still a lot of time between now and the next significant primaries in Arizona and Michigan on February 28. Over the past years pollsters have shown many of Romney’s competitors gaining a lead nationally, including many who are currently out of the race like Rep. Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, and even Donald Trump. Once he faces more scrutiny Santorum may eventually fall back as all of Romney’s competitors have, but the current results must at the very least give the Romney campaign some reason for concern.
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