All along Romney has tried to convince voters that he will inevitably be the Republican presidential nominee, and that they would be better off supporting him against Obama as opposed to dividing the party by supporting other, more conservative, candidates. Two days ago Mitt Romney’s this inevitability theme was working very well. Romney had won New Hampshire, and blunted the Gingrich tide by winning Florida. Romney had by far the most money and the best organization to compete in future states. However, last night Romney’s victory seemed anything but inevitable. Instead, Rick Santorum won all three of the caucus and primary contests last night.
The Romney team was quick to try and excuse the Santorum victories as mere “beauty contests” since no delegates were officially awarded last night. Beauty contest or not, Romney’s chances at victory in the primary or general election certainly looked ugly after the results. The loss came in three states, Missouri, Minnesota, and Nevada, considered crucial “swing states” in the November general election. Romney won Colorado in 2008 with 60% of the Republican vote even though he lost his bid for the overall nomination that year. In 2012 Romney was only able to garner 35% of primary voters. As Think Progress documented, Romney’s support declined significantly from 2008 in all three states as illustrated in the table below.
Colorado
- Romney vote in 2008 - 42,218
- Romney vote in 2012 - 22,875
- Percentage Loss - 46%
Minnesota
- Romney vote in 2008 - 25,990
- Romney vote in 2012 - 8,090
- Percentage Loss - 69%
Missouri
- Romney vote in 2008 - 172,329
- Romney vote in 2012 - 63,826
- Percentage Loss - 63%
Taken together, those results suggest that Romney is actually losing much of his support from 2008. At the very least, many of Romney’s former supporters are simply staying home, suggesting an enthusiasm gap for Romney against Santorum and possibly Obama in the future.
The next contest comes in Maine, which now suddenly becomes a “must win” for Romney for two reasons. First, Romney is from the northeast so he should have an advantage in Maine. Secondly, a Gingrich or Santorum win in Maine would give Romney for losses in a row, making him appear as more of an inevitable losers as opposed to a winner.
After Maine comes the Arizona and Michigan primaries on February 28 and then the Washington Caucuses on March 3. Then, ten states hold contests on “Super Tuesday” which is March 6. Romney would theoretically be favored in most of these states given the current polling and money advantage Romney holds. However, many said the same thing about Colorado before yesterday.
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