So the SAG awards were last weekend and Argo won the SAG Ensemble award. This award, when won by itself, means very little. However, Argo also has the PGA win under its belt. Below are the SAG Award winners and their probability of winning the Oscar.
Ensemble - Argo
47% - SAG & Best Picture winners match.
40% - When SAG & Best Picture noms match 4/5, the winners match.
These are not good odds. Judging by SAG Ensemble alone, I would say no to Argo winning Best Picture, but Argo has also won the PGA award.
Starting in 2002, there has been a pattern of matching like so:
Match, Match, No Match, Match, No Match, Match Match, No Match, Match, No Match
.....the next in the sequence would be Match...
Actor - Daniel Day-Lewis
78% - SAG & Oscar winners match and for the last 8 years in a row.
64% - When SAG & Oscar noms match 4/5, the winners match.
There can be no doubt that Daniel Day-Lewis wins the Oscar.
Actress – Jennifer Lawrence
61% - SAG & Oscar winners match & for the last 3 years in a row.
The SAG & Oscar Actress nominations have never matched lower than 4/5. This year, they match 3/5. Jennifer Lawrence has the more robust role, while Chastain, doing everything her role called for, was stuck playing a character with rather less amount of personality.
Supporting Actor – Tommy Lee Jones
61% - SAG & Oscar winners match & for the last 5 years in a row.
50% - When SAG & Oscar noms match 4/5, the winners match.
It’s Tommy Lee Jones’ to lose. Philip Seymour Hoffman could also win and Christoph Waltz could be a surprise winner as well, though an Oscar winner without having a SAG nom is very rare.
Supporting Actress – Anne Hathaway
61% - SAG & Oscar winners match & for the last 3 years in a row.
67% - When SAG & Oscar noms match 3/5, the winners match
As annoying and humble-braggy as she is, she will win. Now, to prepare for her cringe-worthy acceptance speech.
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