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SAG sets up the Oscar race

American Hustle won the “Best Ensemble” prize at Saturday’s SAG Awards, but does that mean Hustle is a shoe -in for top prize at the Oscars? The short answer is- maybe. SAG predicts the Best Picture winner about half the time. Last year, Argo shocked the film world sweeping past more Academy- friendly films like Lincoln and Zero Dark Thirty. 12 Years‘ a Slave is the clear favorite in 2014, but when we look at 2013, many didn’t have the correct predictions pegged. There’s definitely a shift in the Academy’s trends over the last few years.

Will American Hustle follow in the footsteps of Argo?
Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images

Matthew McConaughey, Cate Blanchett, Lupita Nyong'o, and Jared Leto all picked up Screen Actors’ Guild Awards respectively, making them undeniable front runners for Academy Awards, so don’t put your money on Amy Adams or Jennifer Lawrence to get love from the Academy this year. Insert: “It’s an honor just to be nominated," and other generic statements.

Hustle is definitely a top contender in the “Best Original Screenplay” category, while I’m still upset the Academy gave no love to Prisoners for Aaron Guzikowski’s writing, Hustle might be the next best film. While 12 Years‘ seems to be a no-brainer for Best Pic, at this point, I’m calling for an upset by American Hustle. It’s going to be a long six weeks!