Vladimir Solovyov, head of the Russian segment of the ISS mission control center made a statement on Friday that Space X will not be granted docking permission to dock its Dragon spacecraft at the International Space Station (ISS) during a planned test flight on or around November 30, 2011. The statement comes within weeks of a Russian Soyuz rocket failure that resulted in the first loss of a Progress cargo ship, which was bound for the ISS. The failure of the Soyuz rocket prompted Roscosmos to ground launches. The problem has been tentatively identified, but the fact that the Soyuz remains the only operational mode of transportation of personnel to and from the ISS has left the fate of the station in question.
With the Space Shuttle retired, the United States is completely dependent on the Russian Soyuz as the only means to transport astronauts to and from the ISS. This effectively gives the Russia Federation a monopoly on manned space flight to and from the ISS thus giving it significant leverage to dictate terms, including price, for transportation to the ISS for members of ISS, including the United States. The ability of the Russian Federation to deliver has come into to question when a Soyuz rocket with a Progress freighter failed after launch.
The answer to the Russian Federation's monopoly is the Dragon spaceraft developed by SpaceX under NASA's Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) in 2005. NASA selected SpaceX’s Falcon 9 launch vehicle and the Dragon spacecraft to resupply the International Space Station (ISS) after the retirement of the Space Shuttle fleet in 2011. The contract valued at $1.6 billion consists of 12 flights, with an option to order additional missions for a total contract value of up to $3.1 billion. Space X must perform three demonstration flights to prove the viability of Dragon and it ability to rendezvous and dock with the ISS before it can begin paying flights to the ISS. Space X had tentative approval from NASA to perform both the rendezvous and docking on the demonstration flight planned later this year despite a similar statement by the Russian Federation made earlier this year by Alexei Krasnovi.
Despite the problems with their Soyuz rocket, the Russian Federation still seems willing to use its clout as an ISS partner to stall Space X from proving its concept no matter the circumstances. However, at this point the Russian Federation could likely be flouting rhetoric. Just days after the retirement of the Space Shuttle and the proclamation of the Age of Soyuz, a Russian space official unilaterally announced that all ISS operations would cease in 2020 and the station would be de-orbited to fall into one of the world's oceans. Only after a strong response from members of Congress and several NASA officials did Russian officials retract the statement.
The comment concerning the demonstration flight for Space X looks to be shaping up as the latest disagreement over ISS operations between the United States and the Russian Federation. As a major contributor to the hardware for the ISS as well as providing the Soyuz spacecraft for crew ferrying and the Progress spacecraft for resupply, the Russian Federation exerts considerable influence over the ISS operations, and it has used that influence in the past to its benefit.
One such disagreement about ISS operations arose when the Russian Federation launched a series of paying space tourists, starting with Dennis Tito, to the ISS in order to raise money. Even though the presence of space tourists was initially rejected by NASA, the Russian Federation refused to cancel its arrangement with Tito despite NASA's objections. NASA only relented when Tito agreed to hold NASA and the United States harmless for any injury or death that might occur while he occupied ISS modules registered to the United States. Further discord erupted between NASA and the Russian Federation when the space shuttle Endeavor's departure from the ISS looked to be delayed by technical matters. NASA requested that the Russian Federation delay the launch of the Soyuz with Tito to accommodate the potential delay, but the request was refused.
As shown with the space toruism issue, the Russian Federation has demonstrated its determination to use its clout as a participant in the ISS, and it is probable that it is continuing to use that leverage to protect its current monopoly of ferrying crews to and from the ISS as well as its portion of freighter business via the Progress spacecraft despite the grounding of its Soyuz rocket. The fact that that Space X must satisfy the Russian Federation demand that Dragon meets its safety requirements is likely part of a strategy to protect its economic interest in the ISS notwithstanding any circumstances that may arise, including the grounding of its own space systems.
However, the Russian Federation's current troubles and inability to perform its obligations gives NASA new-found leverage that it should use to overcome the latest Russian rhetoric. NASA needs to take the Russian Federation to task and ensure that Space X will be allowed to perform its demonstration flight as planned once it validates its ability to do so. If NASA fails to take a stand on this issue, the Russian Federation will only be emboldened to make more demands upon the United States and make the ISS partnership one-sided in their favor.
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