TO SAY THAT Aliya Mustafina singlehandedly gave the Russians their first World team title last fall would be an oversimplifaction. Suffice to say that without her, Russia's chances at winning a second world title this fall in Tokyo (or wherever the championship is held) are not as optimal.
With Viktoria Komova growing and struggling with an injury that kept her out of the European Championships, team leadership this year will likely fall to two women: 2008 Olympian Ksenia Afanasyeva and 2010 World vault/bars finalist Tatiana Nabieva. Both are dreadfully inconsistent, though Nabieva rarely misses on bars or vault.
(More Nabieva defense: The supposed drama queen from St. Petersburg also competed more often than anyone on the Russian team last year, meaning she's done more routines under pressure. Despite her scary practice Amanars, she has not had a major injury as a senior, which indicates she is able to handle being team Russia's workhorse.)
If Mustafina's injury is going to prolong anyone's career, it is Ksenia Semyonova's or Anna Pavlova's. Pavlova, who tore her own ACL almost two and a half years ago, looks almost as sharp as she did pre-injury on vault and beam, though she has yet to show a floor routine with elite-level tumbling.
Semyonova, whose skill level and routine quality has deteriorated some during the past two years, still put together decent all-around scores in 2010, and the Russians (somewhat inexplicably) kept putting her on major teams. Before Mustafina vaulted an Amanar in a competition she could have won even if she'd done an FTY, Semyonova was the gymnast most likely to be edged out by the coming of Komova, who has potential to make up for some if not all of Mustafina's scores.
Unfortunately, with Mustafina gone, Russia is now missing start values and stability. Unlike every other gymnast on her team, did not make a major mistake in Rotterdam before falling on balance beam in event finals.
Of the Russians on the 2010 World team that leaves Ekaterina Kurbatova, Anna Dementyeva and Anna Myzdrikova. Dementyeva, the newly crowned European all-around champion, is a classic tablesetter -- she does a lot of difficulty very cleanly and is even a threat for multiple event finals, yet she won't outshine the team star.
Kurbatova and Myzdrikova have not fared as well. Kurbatova, the 2009 European Champion on vault, appears to have downgraded since the World Championships and did not look capable of a clean DTY at her last World Cup event in December. Myzdrikova, once a World medal threat on floor and with a decent DTY, still looks like more of an alternate.
So who does that leave? Well, there's Komova, who when she returns should do a lot to make up Mustafina's scores. Juniors Anastasia Grishina and Anastasia Sidorova should factor into the Olympic picture but are not eligible for the 2011 World Championships.
New senior Yulia Belokobylskaya, who won a bronze medal on floor at the European Championships, is serviceable on that event but a wildcard everywhere else. Tatiana Solovyeva, a promising junior who is now a second-year senior, was last seen at Cottbus in 2010 and hasn't been heard from since. The 2011 Jesolo senior squad consisted of Belokobylskaya and several B-team gymnasts who, while lovely in their presentation, do not have the difficulty needed to sustain the Russian team in a World meet. The highest D-score from a Russian senior at Jesolo was 5.8 for Maria Stepanova's bar routine, and it came attached to a 6.9 E-score.
Other candidates include Ramilya Musina, a floor medalist at the 2010 French International, and Violetta Malikova, a brilliant but inconsistent beamworker, and Maria Paseka, the 2010 Junior European Champion on vault. Supposing Komova is the new Mustafina (at least for the time being), a Paseka/Malikova or Paseka/Pavlova combination might take the place of Kurbatova/Semyonova on vault and beam, while Musina could factor in on floor.
But in reality, we haven't seen any of these gymnasts compete in a long time, so it's hard to know what they're capable of. By competing Mustafiana and Nabieva around the world and showcasing the 2010 World team everywhere else, the Russians have cleverly given their best gymnasts competition experience while hiding the fact that they might be lacking some depth this season. Maybe Semyonova's nomination to these teams is justified after all.
Comments