It was ironic that the very day Russia announced they would not endorse a U.N. Resolution to ban arms shipments to Syria, they also announced they would continue to supply arms shipments to their Middle East ally. “As of today, there are no restrictions on or delivery of weapons.” said Anatoly Antonoc, Russia's deputy defense minister. We must fulfill our obligations and that is what we are doing.”
Those inside the Kremlin making those sort decisions, in the midst of a brutal Syrian government repression of citizen's rights, may be whistling past the graveyard.
For instance, if the unpopular Syrian leader were to fall, much like the recently deposed leaders of Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, what would be Russia's standing with the new government of the country? Almost the entire world wants Syrian President Bashar Assad thrown out of office – every nation save for Russia, China and a few other minor players on the world stage.
It's hard to imagine the removal of Assad. Blood is already on his hands with an estimated 5,000 citizens killed by his army. It is hard to imagine any new government replacing him that would favor diplomatic ties countries sponsoring mass murder of its people in a civil war.
On February 4th, both Russia and China vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution drawn up by the Arab League. It simply called for the carnage to end and Assad to step down. The vote was 13-2 during one of the bloodiest days of fighting since the uprising began last March.
Why are Russia and China so brazenly intent on supporting the defiant Syrian regime? It could have much to do with their own country's internal strife. This may be their way of providing an example of what they are capable of should domestic rebellion escalate.
Tens of thousands of anti-government protesters turned out Feb 4th in Moscow calling for Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to step down. These demonstrators have become a regular event in Russian life since monitors found rampant fraud in December's parliamentary elections. Far too regular for hardliners within the Kremlim.
In China, frustrated Tibetans are in open revolt. Angered by years of Chinese occupation and religious repression, Buddhist monks have taken to the streets setting themselves afire in protest. The Tibetans are now staging a full-blown uprising that the Chinese Communist government fears may spread to China proper.
In today's internet age, that is a distinct possibility as news of the revolt becomes easier to convey to all the Chinese people. It isn't fluke that China has the largest army in the world. It is there mostly to prevent internal strife rather than foreign threats.
Like Assad, the autocrats in both China and Russia face their own popular revolts. Though those rebellions are relatively easy to contain presently, the Syrian uprising along, with many others in 2011 have left an indelible impression on their own people's fight for freedom.
Both countries have the familiar propaganda machine running full-tilt from their state-run media.
Xinhua, the government puppet news service in China, quoted a foreign ministry spokesman saying, “Overseas forces for Tibet independence have been fabricating rumors and distorting the truth to discredit China.” Russia's state-owned TV station ran a documentary that accused Michael McFaul, the new U.S. ambassador, of paying protesters to take to the streets.
The leaders of both China and Russia are running scared. They know that what has happened in a tightly-controlled country such as Syria can very well spill over into their own front yard. Unlike years gone by, the digital age brings such uprisings closer to their borders with little they can do to control the message.
Russia still has contracts worth over $6 billion for future arms with Syria. They can ill-afford to lose that sort of money in an unstable economy. They realize it's just a matter of time before the uprising sucks the Russians in directly with evidence of their weapons being used to kill innocent Syrian citizens by the bushel. Anatov, the deputy minister of defense can only mutter that “We have agreements with Syria” while the world looks on with contempt.
As the Middle East continues to sort itself out from its Arab Spring, what will be the lasting consequences to China and Russia when the smoke clears and new governments prevail?
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