In his Easter Sunday political column, Knoxville News-Sentinel State political reporter Tom Humphrey says he thinks Mike McWherter may actually have an outside chance to win the race for Tennessee Governor in November, since he is the only remaining Democrat in the field, while the Republicans are still left fighting it out among three candidates:
Except in cases where an incumbent was seeking re-election, as with Phil Bredesen in 2006 or Ned McWherter in 1990, this marks the first time in at least six decades that the Tennessee Democratic gubernatorial nominee was determined without a primary - a remarkable role reversal from the days when the Republican nominee was more or less anointed and the Democrats fought it out.
For example, Ned McWherter had a very bitter primary in 1986 while Winfield Dunn was handed the GOP nomination by agreement of powers that be.
In 1994, Don Sundquist was the chosen one - though, yes, David Copeland refused to go along with the plan and became a token, underfunded primary opponent. Phil Bredesen, in that year, had to overcome nine opponents in the primary. When he won the nomination in 2002, he also had active opposition.
Mike McWherter was not exactly anointed - though one can hear speculation about whether his father made some well-placed phone calls to help along the process of other prospective Democratic candidates abandoning the race.
For example, it surprised many that U.S. Rep. John Tanner, a longtime friend and ally of Ned McWherter, decided not to seek re-election to Congress. When he made the announcement, Herron - who could have been particularly troublesome to a Mike McWherter candidacy since they share the same West Tennessee geographic base - abandoned his gubernatorial run to instead seek Tanner's congressional seat.
Could the hand of Ned have been in there somewhere?
Ned Ray McWherter may be getting way up there in years, but all reports are that while Tennesseans on our side of the State don't see him much anymore (as I pointed out in a November 2007 blog post, McWherter the Elder needs some help getting around), his political acumen is still as sharp as a tack and that he takes a pretty "active sideline" role in Weakley County and West Tennessee Democratic Party business. It is not the least bit inconceivable that he made a few "well-placed phone calls" to clear the field for his son.
I am not sure that I buy into the theory that some people in both parties hold which says that short primaries or no primary is good for their party, and as Humphrey himself pointed out, McWherter and current Governor Phil Bredesen both had to deal with heavy primary opposition and then fight a General Election, and both won. A contested primary for Governor in Tennessee is usually a sign that your political party is becoming dominant in State politics. Republicans have contested and won Statewide races before for Governor and U.S. Senator, but never as the majority party in State Government with a chance to increase that majority-potentially in a significant way during the same election cycle. The Republican Party is showing itself-in every historical sense-as the majority party in Tennessee that it has become.
Mike McWherter's problem is that there is a great difference between when his father ran for Governor and now, when he has chosen to stand, and it doesn't have as much to do with the current political climate as with the state of the political careers of the participants. The Republican nominee will either be a current Member of Congress, the present mayor of Tennessee's third-largest city, or the sitting Lieutenant Governor. Mike McWherter has been a successful businessman, but when his father ran for Governor, he had served 14 years as Speaker of the Tennessee House of Representatives. Mike McWherter is running on his father's record, not his own, and that is why his chances of victory in November remain slim.
Comments