Shortly after Herman Cain declared a suspension of his presidential candidacy on December 3rd, market forecaster and real-world prediction entity InTrade changed the odds for several Republican candidates, with Congressman Ron Paul gaining the most points in the newly adapted charts.
InTrade odds are signified by prices, similar to a stock on an equity exchange. Investors can buy or sell people, events, or any potential outcomes for future occurrances. In the case of both Herman Cain and Ron Paul, the prices represent the potential of either candidate winning the 2012 Presidential election.
After the news conference by Herman Cain, his 'stock' fell more than 80% from a price of 1.6 to .02, leaving himself with viritually no chance of winning the election. On the flip side, Ron Paul's stock grew more than 8% from 4.5 to 4.9 on strong volume trading.
(See charts for both Herman Cain and Ron Paul in the slideshow to the left of this article)
These numbers for 'out of the box' investors who use InTrade resources to predict future outcomes coincide with many grassroots polls in both Iowa and California which have Ron Paul the victor in the straw categories. Elections in the 21st century go far beyond simple caucus's, primaries, and minimal debates, and now encompass organizations, internet outlets, and markets outside the older paradigms of prior campaigns.
As front runners in the Republican party rise and fall over the course of this year's election season, Ron Paul has been the tortoise to their hares, and the benefactor of being solid in his convictions. With Herman Cain now out of the race, and most assuredly out of the presidential picture, InTrade markets are seeing the Congressman's chances rise with each passing trade.
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