With seven months remaining until the national election in November, Mitt Romney has yet to even lock up the Republican nomination for president. But recent polls indicate he is losing ground rapidly to Barack Obama amongst two key demographics—women and hispanics.
The erosion of Romney's support among women, noted in a recent Pew Research poll, has been rapid, coming in the wake of the national debates about women's contraceptive rights, including votes in Republican-controlled state legislatures to force women to undergo unnecessary ultrasound procedures prior to abortions, and the considerable uproar concerning insulting statements made by Rush Limbaugh about a young woman who had testified before Congress.
Romney's problems with the hispanic community, noted recently in a Fox News poll showing him with just 14% support among hispanics versus 70% support for President Obama, was discussed today in a Wall Street Journal article, wherein the conclusion was that Romney will likely need to seriously consider picking a hispanic running mate—Florida US Senator Marco Rubio is often mentioned as a likely pick for that solution.
However, the GOP's general problem with hispanics goes deeper and longer than a window-dressing selection for VP likely can address. In the debates, the Republican presidential candidates desperately attempted to sound to the right of one another on immigration issues—with Romney being helped considerably early on by Texas Governor Rick Perry committing the terrible mistake, in the eyes of many GOP voters, of suggesting "compassion" might be an appropriate emotion in dealing with illegal immigrants.
The demographic differences have translated into a real problem for Romney in more general terms, as according to a new Gallup poll, Romney is 9 points behind Barack Obama in "Key 2012 Election Swing States", trailing 51% for Obama to 42% for Romney. The poll notes: "This is the first time in five measurements that Obama has held an advantage over Romney in those states."
While most commentators indicate Romney still has time to repair the problems he has with women and hispanic voters, they also warn that he needs to begin addressing those concerns much sooner, rather than later. And that makes wrapping up the nominating process as soon as possible all the more important for the Romney campaign.
Tomorrow's primary in Wisconsin, wherein Romney leads Rick Santorum in most polls by 7-8 points, is in that sense a must-win situation for Romney.
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