Could it be that Republicans are about to witness one of the most spectacular collapses in Republican primary history? Could Mitt Romney's disfavor among dedicated conservatives reach its pinnacle in the Michigan primary, February 28th?
What began as the sure bet candidate in September is now limping into his home state's primary pursued by a very dark horse, Rick Santorum. The former senator who has come out of nowhere to win four state caucuses and primaries – the very same number his cash-heavy adversary Mitt Romney has won with one-tenth the campaign donations.
A win for Santorum in Romney's birthplace of Michigan would place him either in a tie for hearts and minds of Republican voters, or take the pole position. No credible political pundit predicted this scenario anywhere.
Count on the upcoming Michigan contest to get ugly. If Florida's primary following Romney's bitter defeat to Gingrich in South Carolina is any indicator, money and influence will be the operative words Santorum faces.
According to new polls in Michigan, the former Pennsylvania senator has jumped to a sizable lead in the state. Public Policy Polling has Santorum commanding a 39 to 27 percent advantage over Romney with Santorum ahead in every country except Oakland (Detroit suburbs), where Romney was born.
“Rick Santorum has all the momentum in Michigan right now,” says Public Policy Polling president Dean Debnam.
What will be interesting to watch is how Romney portrays Santorum in the inevitable attack ads to come. Unlike Gingrich, who has a long list of political enemies and a murky personal life, Santorum has none of those black marks while having married only once with seven adorable children to boot.
Will vicious attack ads help Romney, or will it poison his candidacy as a spiteful and negative money bags? What worked against a man who could be all those traits in Florida may be the wrong idea wit “goody-goody" Santorum in Michigan.
With poll numbers indicating another poor showing for Gingrich, Romney could find himself in even worse shape should Newt decide to quit the race in the near future. The Pubic Policy Polling shows that 54 percent of Gingrich supporters would opt for Santorum, compared with 21 percent for Romney.
With Gingrich's obvious disdain for Romney after the bitter loss in Florida, would he throw his votes to Santorum as a final nail in Romney's once invincible lead?
More and more respected party voices, such as the National Review, are calling for Gingrich to quit the race freeing up the last anti-Romney candidate who could very likely beat him as Super Tuesday looms March 6th.
Should the race become a two-man affair (Ron Paul has zero chance), the Midwest will not be kind to Romney. He has already lost Iowa, Minnesota and Missouri. Michigan can be considered Midwest, with a working-class that favors a Santorum candidacy. Santorum has 53 percent of Michigan Tea Party support. 51 percent of the “very conservative” and 48 percent of evangelicals.
In 2008, Romney strongly urged no bailouts for the auto industry. Santorum was also against government intervention, but Romney's opposition is more widely publicized and often mentioned in local Michigan media since his late father (former three-term governor of the state) once was the head of American Motors during the 1960's.
Santorum has cleverly shaped the race as conservative vs moderate. If that idea catches fire with Michigan voters, he will win going away. The mere thought of Santorum winning Michigan following his stunning three-state sweep has brought in $3 million in campaign donations.
It all looks to be going Santorum's way presently. He has the momentum and the fresh money to fight.
“It's important to note that 50 percent of voters say they could change their minds in the next two weeks,” Debnam said. “There's a lot of room for the race to shift back toward Romney in coming days.”
Romney is well-aware of that reality and will undoubtedly pour millions into TV ads, as he did against Gingrich in Florida last month. Romney won Michigan in his race against John McCain in 2008 by 9 points. He has proven in Florida and Maine that he is capable of coming back quickly.
However the race turns out, it will be the most decisive yet for both candidates. It won't decide the nomination, but a Santorum victory changes the political landscape for theever-important Super Tuesday primaries March 6th.
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