As Wes Welker was having a down season in his first year back since tearing his ACL, rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez emerged as dependable and productive passing targets and developed themselves into the new Wes Welkers of the New England Patriots. It was due to their high level of play that quarterback Tom Brady was able to maintain his spectacular passing efficiency for the season.
Individually, it was Gronkowski who had the slightly more productive season catching Brady's passes. On passes thrown in Gronkowski's direction, in 17 games including the Patriots' divisional playoff game, Brady completed 73.2% of them, gained 9.1 yards per attempt, gained 12.5 yards per completion, gained 11.4 adjusted yards per pass attempt, and posted an 11.6 touchdown percentage to a 0.0 interception percentage.
Those extremely impressive numbers allowed Gronkowski to become the NFL's second-most valuable tight end in total production with 249 DYAR and third-most valuable tight end in value per play with a 51.9% DVOA among the 45 tight ends who were targeted for at least 25 passes. Gronkowski trailed only San Diego Chargers tight end Antonio Gates in DYAR and was behind just Gates and Green Bay Packers tight end Jermichael Finley in DVOA.
Addtionally, he was slightly more valuable to Tom Brady than was Hernandez. From how Brady performed on throws to all his receivers including Gronkowski to how he performed on throws to all his wide receivers except Gronkowski, he experienced a 1.4% decrease in completion percentage (from 65.7% to 64.8%), a 2.5% decrease in yards per pass attempt (from 7.8 to 7.6), a 5.7% decrease in adjusted yards per attempt (from 8.8 to 8.3), a 1.7% decrease in yards per completion (from 11.9 to 11.7), a 16.9% decrease in touchdown percentage (from 7.1% to 5.9%), and an 11.1% increase in interception percentage (from .9% to 1.0%).
As great a passing season as Brady had, he was even better because he had Gronkowski.
Hernandez, meanwhile, turned in an outstanding year as well. In 15 games, including the Patriots' lone playoff game, Brady completed 71.9% of his passes, gained 8.9 yards per pass attempt, gained 12.3 yards per completion, gained 10.7 adjusted yards per pass attempt, and posted a 9.4 touchdown percentage to a 0.0 interception percentage on throws in Hernandez's direction.
He was also one of the most productive tight ends across the entire NFL, ranking fifth in total production with 160 DYAR and seventh in value per play with a 30.8% DVOA among the same 45 tight ends.
Also, just like Gronkowski, but to a slightly lesser extent, he made Brady a more dangerous quarterback. From how Brady performed on throws to all receivers including Hernandez to how he performed on throws to all receivers other than Hernandez, he underwent a 1.2% decrease in completion percentage (from 66.4% to 65.6%), a 1.3% decrease in yards per pass attempt (from 7.8 to 7.7), a 3.4% decrease in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 8.7 to 8.4), a .8% decrease in yards per completion (from 11.8 to 11.7), a 6.0% decrease in touchdown percentage (from 6.7% to 6.3%), and a 20.0% increase in interception percentage (from 1.0% to 1.2%).
Together the tight ends were even more valuable than they were separately. From how Brady performed on throws to receivers including Gronkowski and Hernandez to how he performed on throws to all receivers other than Gronkowski and Hernandez for the 15 games in which both tight ends played, Brady saw a 3.0% decrease in his completion percentage (from 66.4% to 64.4%), a 5.1% decrease in yards per pass attempt (from 7.8 to 7.4), a 9.2% decrease in adjusted yards per pass attempt (from 8.7 to 7.9), a 2.5% decrease in yards per completion (from 11.8 to 11.5), a 22.4% decrease in touchdown percentage (from 6.7% to 5.2%), and a 30.0% increase in interception percentage (from 1.0% to 1.3%).
The ease with which both rookie tight ends transitioned to the NFL and became Brady's new most reliable passing targets could not have come at a better time for the Patriots, as they were dealing with trading away Randy Moss mid-season and a less productive Wes Welker. Without Gronkowski and Hernandez, Brady would certainly not have had his MVP-caliber season so if he does win the award, it should be his tight ends whom he thanks first.
Comments