At the very least, many of the candidates on today's ballot have been campaigning since December or January. For many of them, their campaigns have been a constant in their lives for the last two years. Even the non-partisan prognosticators are now predicting a Republican wave in this General Election, and if that holds true it will indicate not only a change of political power in Congress but a change in the political order itself that could last for many years.



In Tennessee, Bill Haslam's victory is a virtual certainty. The situation in the General Assembly is more fluid, because while Republican pickups in the Tennessee House of Representatives seem certain, no one really knows just how many seats the GOP will gain, with predictions ranging from just one seat to pickups of five or more. If the Republicans win the federal General Election as predicted, the vote should rightly be seen at this point as less of an endorsement of the Republican Party, and more of a repudiation of the politics and policies of the party opposite and of its de facto leader, Barack Obama.

 

While some outlets are predicting a GOP "tsunami," your Examiner is more cautious. As of this afternoon, it is the belief of this writer that the Republicans will gain between 50 and 55 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives-more than enough to take control of that body-and 7 Seats in the United States Senate. While it is heartening for those of us on the Republican side to hear that many analysts believe that the GOP could do much better than that (and admittedly if that happens there will be no complaining in this space), we have to be realistic about the mood both in the country and in Tennessee, which seems to be one of "a pox on both your houses." Such a mentality does not generally produce swing majorities as large as what some are predicting.

 

If Republican gains are greater than what is described above, the GOP must be careful not to allow the President to use Congress as a political punching bag, and if they are less than that, the White House spin machine will somehow try to spin the election as a Democratic victory. Spin though they might, the GOP only needs 39 seats to win the U.S. House of Representatives, and they will almost certainly win at least that many-and will win the election.

 

Tennessee House of Representatives-Republicans 53, Democrats 45, 1 Independent

(GOP +3)

 

Tennessee Senate-Republicans 19, Democrats 14 (A wash, no change)

 

Rep. Stacey Campfield wins his hotly contested Senate race with Democrat Randy Walker, and Mae Beavers hangs on for dear life.