Republican Governor Jan Brewer signed SB 1070, the Arizona immigration bill, into effect. AP Photo
In politics, it is possible for someone to win a battle and yet lose a war. Republican support for the most recent Arizona immigration bill may illustrate that principle perfectly.
The law has been criticized for the manner in which it attempts to enforce immigration law. It requires local law enforcement to ask someone for identification if they have "reasonable suspicion" that the person is an illegal immigrant. If the person in question does not produce satisfactory paperwork they can then be arrested.
The law was first passed by the Arizona state legislature which is controlled by the Republicans. The Republican Governor of Arizona, Jan Brewer, then had a chance to veto the law but she instead signed it. Gov. Brewer said she would not allow racial profiling to be used in enforcing the law. However, Hispanic groups are skeptical of that promise to say the least.
Nationally, Republicans have either been quiet on the bill or endorsed it. Most notably, Senator John McCain (R-AZ) expressed his support for the measure even though he was previously seen as a moderate on immigration issues.
Meanwhile, Democrats have voiced strong opposition to the bill. President Obama said the bill violated basic notions of fairness and claimed he would investigate how the bill was being enforced. Democrats are also expected to start pushing a national immigration reform bill. That bill will surely be more friendly to Hispanic groups, allowing some road through which many illegal immigrants can earn citizenship.
Republicans have already signaled their opposition to any Democratic effort to overhaul immigration. Their emphasis is more on enforcement of current laws and the building of a bigger, better fence along the border. Most experts agree that deportation of some 15 million illegal immigrants is impossible, but that has not kept Republicans from advocating such a solution.
The short term political fallout is somewhat predictable. Republicans will make gains in 2010 and possibly even in 2012. In hard economic times the population tends to look for something or someone to blame. Immigrants, both legal and illegal, tend to be one of the common targets. Republicans will ride on this anti-immigration wave to success and Democrats will likely pay a price.
However, long term Republicans must know that the numbers do not look good for them. Hispanics are already the largest minority group in the United States making up about 14% of the population. In addition, Hispanics will make up an increasingly larger portion of the population. Simply put, Hispanics are reproducing at a much faster rate than the white population. As a result, by 2050 Hispanics will make up 29% of the overall population. That is a huge voting block. Whites will make up only 47% of the population in 2050, while African-Americans will likely remain at 13% of the population.
In 2008, Democrats were already dominating the minority groups. Sen. John McCain actually won the white population in the United States over president Obama by a 55%-43% margin. What enabled President Obama to win was his significant victory over McCain in the African American (95%-4%) and Hispanic (67%-31%) population groups.
With the recent Republican efforts in Arizona, and their expected opposition to immigration reform on the national level, their support amongst the Hispanic population is likely to go down even further. It will be very hard for Republicans to win elections in the long term while losing 42% of the population (Hispanics and African-Americans) by a large margin.
The Republicans should enjoy their victories in 2010, because after that they will likely face insurmountable demographic obstacles in the long term. Republicans are winning the early moves of the political game of chess, but Democrats seem to be setting up a larger trap.
Comments
hispanics have traditionally been non-voters or low-voters...this is going to be their wakeup call...november will have this going around the hispanic neighborhoods: "if you don't vote, the republicans will do it to you again and again. VOTE!"...Arizona Republicans have done more to spark the hispanic vote nationwide than anything the Democrats could ever do....Republicans have become the new Chupacabras.
Thanks Republicans!
ffff illegal aliens
12 million of them
kick their a** out of the country
they broke the LAW
u stupid liberal
huh says:
"ffff illegal aliens
12 million of them
kick their a** out of the country
they broke the LAW
u stupid liberal"
more like 20 million and be my guest, throw them out...all 20 million of them...get started! quit talking and get started...how many have YOU thrown out? WELL? You want someone else to do your dirty work? F##King do it!...how much would it be worth to you? 1% tax? 5% tax?...it ain't going to be free to catch, feed and transport 20 million people...are you willing to be taxed for it?...how much tax are you willing to take on to build an "iron curtain" and the personnel to maintain and secure that "iron curtain"?....put the money on the table so we can get started!
Regular Americans want their representatives to 'represent them'; Not scheme to see which 'party' will be better off for a decision they make.
The vast majority of Americans want the immigration laws enforced! Big business benefits from illegal immigration and politicians benefit from money from big business. It's disgusting!
Oh, but I forgot; no need to worry, Obama knows best. Excuse me; I need to go throw up.
Gigi says:
"Regular Americans want their representatives..."
ok, stop there...conservatives always speak of "Regular Americans"...WHAT THE HELL ARE "REGLAR Americans"???????? show me a photo of "regular" Americans and a photo of non-"regular" Americans....is that a code word for "White" Americans????????
From the looks of her fingernails, I don't thinks she's done much yard work in her life.
Slam through an amnesty bill like you did the health care bill and attempting the bail out bill, and the dems will not hold the house or senate for decades.
It seems very 'racist' for democrats to assume that most American hispanics would automatically support them in granting amnesty to criminals that entered this country illegally.
Like I always been saying Republicans are Racist….About The House and Senate, how can the Republican win both, for decades? When Hispanic and Black, are the majority, are you planning to double your votes per person..
Republicans always accuse the Dems of being racist, when Republicans aligns themselves with the KKK, from the day when they formed, and still in a way are with them deep or close to there heart…
You should consider creating your own blog here or writing articles for the Huffington Post or Daily Kos websites to help recruit new democrat voters.How did you gain your tax-exempt status? Do you operate a charity that gives computers to other mentally retarded folks?
TaxExemptGod says:
"Like I always been saying Republicans are Racist….About The House and Senate, how can the Republican win both, for decades? When Hispanic and Black, are the majority, are you planning to double your votes per person."
RE:Tom Tuttle from Tacoma
Hey Sarah Palin wouldn’t like you saying the “R” word how dare you say that word those kids or adults don’t deserve that, you should be fired from whatever your doing. I’m reporting you to Palin…….See I can do fake outrage like you Republican always do…lol!!!!!!!
P.S. remember Republican and the KKK go way back…. prove me wrong…
www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/0410/Obama_seeks_to_reconnectyoung_people_AfricanAmerins_Latinos_and_women_for_2010.html?showall
More democrat race-based campaigning.The comments are great.
RE:joe
Wait… didn’t Bush use the fear tactic for like his whole tenure?
Boy, it must be scary to be a minority, now you know how we felt…Welcome to the lower east side…Talk about real Americans.....
Why will African-Americans still only make up 13% of the US population forty years from now in 2050 when hispanics are thriving?
Knee jerk, unfunded, blanket legislation is not good for anyone. The Arizona move has left the police officers swinging in the breeze. They have to make all the decisions. They have to suffer the consequences for any errors in judgement. No law should be passed without the funding, ie. Extensive, on-going training of officers to help them perform their duty with clear guidelines. In car monitoring devices to protect the officer and the person being detained for questioning. Until you have adequately addressed and funded the role of the police officer, you have passed a bad law.
RE:Quantavius Jones
Were you get that from Rush or Beck, I think you should wait till the 2010 censuses has been tally up, but again don’t be scared we wont make you move to public funded housing…yet!!!!!!
TEG: It's written in the story above.
RE:lg
Yes!!! See I agree you and this post, Police will get the wrong end of the stick….See we can get alone sometime… great post……..
RE:lg
Yes!!! See I agree with you, on this post, Police will get the wrong end of the stick….See we can get alone sometime… great post……..
I'll trust the Censuses before the Pew Research Center....
The censuses can't be trusted either now that Mr.Charlie has gotten rid of the brothers and sisters at acorn.
RE:Quantavius Jones
What does Acorn have to do with this? , you think Black people
are to dumb to know how to sign a ballot?
Black people built the great pyramids in Egypt, they can surely sign a ballot.What does signing a ballot have to do with the censuses?
RE:Quantavius Jones
Wow you failed history didn’t you? The Egyptian Artisans were the main people who build the Pyramids, there we far from black….Why did you mention Acorn, is it because black people were getting help?
And a White man heavily edited the tapes that took down Acorn and guess what? Fox news doesn’t even report it anymore cause they lied…..
TEG: You are a white devil pretending to be Black to cause trouble.
RE:Quantavius Jones
I call it, as i see it.....
Tom and Joe,
Thanks for your comments. I am glad that the light of day is being shined on the Pervasive Liberal Racism that seems to run the Democratic party these days.
Let the Liberals speak....let the country hear them.!!
RE:jaime
We will not be silences anymore… The KKK only exists in the hearts of Republicans, and maybe the South….
Even the littlest Barnfinckle saw through TEGs stunt.
frumpy Barnfinckle III says:
Even the littlest Barnfinckle saw through TEGs stunt.
You think it's a funny stunt when a white kid pretends to be a militant ignorant African American to stir up strife?
I think it's reprehensible. I'm certain that TEG is not a Liberal but I do think it's funny that he led you guys on for as long as he did. I have been hinting as much for days now.
This kid TEG has spammed the bejesus out of Witt's fairy tales with his comments, yet Witt leaves them up and removes alot of the other comments that just disagree with his politics without the inflammatory rhetoric.
RE:Frumpy Barnfinckle III. Ted
No, your wrong im not a skinny white kid, why would I spend my time posting? I tell you what I am, is a Left Wing Liberal, who expose the racist Tea Bagger Republican party… also im an Hispanic male leaving in Orlando….
Where are all the stories of the ILLEGAL ALIENS trashing the Capital in Arizona? Smearing re-fried beans all over the building, attacking police etc?
If this was the TPPM it would be all over the airwaves.
do we need any more proof of the double standard?
Between Obama and companies racism and the illegals demanding more of their host country, this may just lead to the race war many extremists have been saying is coming.
The denigration of LEGAL Americans in the TPPM and the silence about the illegal aliens violence may just be the tipping point.
TaxExemptGod gets teabagged every evening by his amigo Jose and LOVES IT!
Yeah right TEG, and and so are Jaimme and Klatoo and Gigi. All one happy Left Wing Liberal family.
RE:Beware of false prophets
Your Father gets Tea Bagged by your Mom!!!!!!
Liar! You're a pasty white clown named Todd or Buffy that dropped out of college after not hacking the liberal arts and live in your parent's basement.No hispanics in Orlando have the free time to post that you do.They are all busy landscaping at Disney World.
TEG says; No, your wrong im not a skinny white kid, why would I spend my time posting? I tell you what I am, is a Left Wing Liberal, who expose the racist Tea Bagger Republican party… also im an Hispanic male leaving in Orlando….
RE: El Guapo
I’m posting with a Black Berry will landscaping.. Wait your saying an Hispanic man cant out post all you Racist?
Gigi, Jaime, Klatoo sorry, but it looks like you've been had by one of your own.
Your all right, I LOVE to be teabagged! Especially by my illegal alien amigos.
thats very true...
I love all my Racist Republican,President Obama is a N @$#%* !!!!
TaxExemptGod you suck
We should be able to register thru email just like Politico does, so we can protect our code names…
RE: DW
ITS NOT ME I'M POSTING FAIR... SO BITE ME....
Why are you guys ganging up on me. You're all racist republicans. I hate you...
that wasnt me i dont sound like that...lol...
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