Real Salt Lake seems to be at a crossroads in regards to the players it will retain going into 2011. Forward Robbie Findley announced today he is leaving RSL for a chance to play in Europe.
That orchestrated a move in which RSL kept several players from its youth movement before Wednesday‘s Exapnsion Draft.
RSL--with the CONCACAF Champions League quarterfinals coming up in February--simply could not afford to lose any of its big three attackers.
Findley's departure created a dilemma for RSL: Do you retain the core that helped earn your club’s first title, or go with a youth movement that showed promise in Major League Soccer and a CONCACAF Champions League run? The short answer is that it went young up top, but stayed experienced in the back.
RSL protected list (with age):
Goalkeeper
Nick Rimando 31Defenders
Chris Wingert 28
Nat Borchers 29
Jamison Olave 29
Tony Beltran 23Midfielders
Will Johnson 23
Kyle Beckerman 28
Javier Morales 30Forwards
Alvaro Saborio 28
Fabian Espindola 25
Paulo Junior 21Other
Luis Gil (Generation: Adidas) 17
The move to keep so many forwards left several well known midfielders, including Ned Grabavoy unprotected, but it should come as no surprise to the true RSL fan that something drastic was about to happen.
The club is not getting any younger; the average age of an RSL starter--if the lineup holds true as it did in 2010--is 27.75 years.
For a soccer player, it’s years past one’s prime, though this is MLS and so hard, fast rules that would normally apply to higher-echelon leagues in Europe do not.
Initially, RSL--with its 11 protected players--has shaved off one year from its 2010 average.
So with the MLS Expansion Draft on the horizon on Wed. Dec. 1, RSL fans will soon know who will be exiting the club.
Does it mean that defenders like Robbie Russell and midfielders like Grabavoy and Collen Warner are gone for good? That remains to be seen.
Entering MLS are Portland and Vancouver, creating a symbiotic rivalry of sorts--Seattle Sounders FC included--in the Northwest U.S. and Canada.
Warner played college and pro ball in Portland and so the possibility he's headed back is certainly there.
The sad part of the equation is that leading up to the Expansion Draft, RSL is allowed to protect just 11 players from the prying eyes of expansion sides and is forced leave the rest of its roster unprotected.
RSL unprotected list (with age and country/club):
Goalkeeper
Tim Melia 24 USA Rochester Rhinos
Kyle Reynish 27 USA
DefendersChris Schuler 23 USA
Rauwshan McKenzie 24 USA
David Horst 25 USA
Robbie Russell 31 Ghana
MidfieldNelson Gonzalez 22 Argentina
Jean Alexandre 24 Haiti
Ned Grabavoy 27 USA
Alex Nimo 20 Liberia
Andy Williams 33 Canada
Collen Warner 22 USAForward
The good news: of the players RSL doesn‘t protect, the club can only lose a maximum of two players through this Expansion Draft process.
Also noteworthy: if any of its unprotected players are drafted by either expansion side, the club can then protect another player.
Several things will factor into Portland’s and Vancouver’s decisions: age, country of origin, experience and salary.
Common sense tells you that a player who is up there in age, but has experience--like a Williams, a Russell or a Grabavoy--might be useful for a new team.
However, often those kinds of players command larger salaries, such as Russell, who stands to make $135,000 next year in his current deal.
Country of origin also plays a role, because MLS teams are restricted to how many foreign players it can have on its rosters.
This comes into play with Gonzalez, in particular.
Finally, there’s salary. Williams is reasonable for a young team; he made $88, 200 last year and would stand to make more.
However, he’s 33 and his skills, though not on the decline, could certainly seem to after several more years of play.
One more thing to note: keep in mind, that with the reserve league on its way back to MLS, each team may have up to 30 players on its roster.
So the theory that RSL will lose a major portion of its roster because of the expansion draft is simply untrue.
It’s a huge risk to put any of last year's starting 11 up and leave the rest to chance, but RSL did by leaving Russell, Grabavoy--and arguably--Warner, out there.
On the other hand, RSL did have a good season but it did not win MLS Cup. Its aging team was exposed, time and time again, by a youthful FC Dallas side in the playoffs.
Here's a summary of the moves RSL made and an analysis in advance of the MLS Expansion Draft:
Goalkeeper
It’s a lock the club would keep Rimando, who despite his age is still young for your average MLS starting keeper at 31. He had an All-Star year. Reynish was Rimando’s backup, and had some good moments, but he got enough playing time and he might look appealing to either expansion side. Melia is probably unseasoned for a starting role; he was loaned to Rochester of the minor leagues for most of the season.
Defenders
MLS’ best defense in 2010 may lose one of its top players for 2011, and that’s unfortunate, especially if it‘s Russell. But that’s what happens when your team allows a league-best, history-making 20 goals in one season and you lose a top forward; somebody is left exposed.
First things first: the central defense. Anybody who knows RSL found it highly unlikely that either Borchers--who is now earning U.S. National Team caps--or Olave, the MLS Defender of the Year would be left hanging. Beltran provides RSL with speed; as wing back he makes penetrating runs through its diamond midfield and into an opposing third. That unique ability alone kept Beltran from the hounds.
As for Russell, the crafty vet had two things going against him: one’s his age; the other’s his salary. With Wingert, it wasn’t certain which way RSL would go, but it couldn’t leave both Russell and Wingert out there.
Midfielders
RSL’s midfield was loaded last year, and was the engine through which its attacks were coordinated. Because of that, the club might normally do its best to keep more than its fair share. (That was before Findley left.) Looking at the lineup, there are at least seven players who would likely start for any MLS team.
It’s a huge risk, perhaps more so than the defense, for RSL to leave more than two or three unprotected. The catch: It has nine midfielders. The key exception: Gil is Generation: Adidas, which meant RSL was able to keep him and not have him count as one of the 11 protected players. If you look closer at this group, you could pinpoint whom RSL would keep. Beckerman, Johnson, and Morales were locks.
All had huge seasons and all were key to the team’s success. It’s sad the team might lose Williams, but the club has put him out there before and he returned. The risk is that Williams had a stellar year, and in theory, it would be foolish to allow any team to poach the diamond. Grabavoy is also a big name, and any team would be glad to have his services.
To wit: If either is snapped up first, it does guarantee that RSL protects either Russell, or a midfielder. Don’t be shocked if RSL protects Warner--who got key minutes late in the season--if Grabavoy or Williams is drafted. Warner played his college and pro ball in Portland prior to coming to RSL.
Forward
With Findley’s exit, RSL did whatever it took to hold on to its big three. Talks have already begun with Saborio--and by press time his deal may have already been finalized. Espindola and Paulo Junior had good seasons, and Paulo--with his play in the CCL--has every possibility of becoming a superstar.
RSL would have been very foolish to not only not protect him, but not sign him to a long-term deal; the Brazilian is currently on loan from Miami. The odd man out, it seemed, was Campos. The thing is, at 26, it’s unlikely he’d be part of any expansion team’s plans. While he’s the only forward RSL left unprotected, it’s feasible he’ll return to the club.
UPDATE 11/24/10: At today's MLS Expansion Draft, the Portland Timbers selected Horst, which enabled RSL to protect Warner, a good move considering he may have been drafted had Real Salt Lake left the former UP midfielder/forward unprotected.
With Portland's second pick, the Timbers went right back to last year's MLS Cup champions, selecting Findley. It was a surprising move since Findley has expressed interest in playing in Europe.
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