Whether unemployment goes up or down a fraction of 1 percent is irrelevant. The much talked about “recovery” cannot take place on the bases the way things were previous to the financial meltdown.
The U.S. manufacturing base has been systematically dismantled over last 30 years. Most significant manufacturing activities have been exported mainly to China, and to a lesser extent to India, Mexico, and other places.
What we need is an industrial policy that restores manufacturing, introduces manufacturing curriculum at all educational levels, and restores a culture and pride of making things.
How unemployment figures are calculated
Unemployment in the U.S. is reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Bureau considers unemployed only people receiving unemployment benefits. Once your unemployment check runs out you are not part of the official unemployment figures any longer. Neither does it includ the partially employed, or those making a living in the informal economy.
If all categories of unemployment and under-employment are considered, the true unemployment rate hovers round 30 percent, with some states above and some below that mark, as the graphic indicates. Some counties in California have about one fourth of the population unemployed.
The current unemployment situation differs from previous ones in that now we are facing long-term unemployment. In the past there was unemployment generated by business cycles. Now we have entire industries disappearing such as automotive, with no hope of returning. Some workers in those industries might retrain to qualify for employment in other areas of the economy but the vast majority faces long-term idleness.
Youth unemployment
Even before the financial meltdown close to 50 percent of youth 16-19 years old were unemployed. Many, even with a college education, haven't held a permanent position in their entire lives.
Google has a service that easily show unemployment statistics state by state.
According to Robert Reich: “Since the start of the Great Recession in December 2007, the U.S. economy has shed 8.4 million jobs and failed to create another 2.7 million required by an ever-larger pool of potential workers. That leaves us more than 11 million jobs behind. (The number is worse if you include everyone working part-time who’d rather it be full-time, those working full-time at fewer hours, and people who are overqualified for the jobs they’re in.)
This means even if we enjoy a vigorous recovery that produces, say, 300,000 net new jobs a month, we could be looking at five to eight years before catching up to where we were before the recession began.”
The bubble burst
Instead of a productive economy the U.S. has become a consumer nation. 70 percent of the economy has been maintained by consumer expenditure. And much of that consumption was supported by borrowing, by utilizing proceeds from housing appreciation, and by over-leveraging.
The only way the U.S. will come out of this recession is by:
1. Making the Federal Reserve part of the US Treasury (see Understanding the national debt)
2. Restoring manufacturing.
3. Rebuilding infrastructure.
4. Promoting peace instead of war.
5. Investing in the health and education of the population at large.
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