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Re-defining MNsure's success downward

The surest way to determine whether a government program is successful is to compare what the politicians said while passing a bill vs. what they're saying while implementing the bill. Recently, MNsure issued this statement about where they were compared to their original goal:

MNsure 96% to Goal with 10 Days Remaining in Open Enrollment
More than 130,000 enrolled, only 5,000 sign-ups remain to meet 135,000 goal

That's MNsure's spin, which is dramatically different than what the Fiscal Note said for HF5. HF5 is the bill that authorized Gov. Dayton to create MNsure. First, let's hear what MNsure said in a statement last Friday:

To date, MNsure has enrolled 35,610 in a Qualified Health Plan, 26,297 in MinnesotaCare and 69,570 in Medical Assistance.

The figure to watch from that statement is the number of people enrolled in a Qualified Health Plan, aka a QHP. Let's compare that with the graph at the bottom of pg. 6-7 of HF5's fiscal note. According to that graphic, their low-end enrollment in QHPs was supposed to hit 164,000, their mid-range enrollment in QHPs was supposed to hit 217,000 and their high-end enrollment in QHPs was supposed to hit 270,000.

Based on those projections, MNsure is only 13% of the way to hitting the high-end projection, 16.4% of the way to hitting the mid-range projection and only 21.7% of the way to hitting the lowest projection.

Unfortunately, that's just the tip of the iceberg. According to MNsure, only 16% of the people enrolled in QHPs are in the all-important 26-34 age group. That number needs to be 38-40% to produce the revenue the insurance companies need to pay the claims for older, less healthy people.

MNsure is a humanitarian disaster that'll soon become the DFL's worst political nightmare. The numbers simply don't add up.

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