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Random Formula Rankings, Jan. 11


AP Andy Manis

This week in Random Formula Rankings is a look at how teams have fared in the polls for the entire year. I simply awarded points based on the AP and ESPN/USA Today rankings from preseason through week 9.

Teams were given more points for a better ranking, so #1 was awarded 25 points. #2 got 24 points and so on. The totals included 20 polls, 2 for each week, and zero points were given for teams that weren't rated that week. combining the points for each week gives each team's Magic #.

There have been 48 teams ranked in either the Ap or ESPN/USA Today poll for at least one week, so when I refer to "The 48" this is what I am talking about. Here are the top 25 of them and their combined points. I also included each team's record against "The 48" and those opponents' average Magic #.

Example: California
Cal was ranked Preseason: 13/12, Week 1: 13/12 Week 2: 0/23, Week 3: 0/25, which gave them the following points: Preseason 13/14, Week 1: 13/14, Week 2: 0/3, Week 3 0/1. Cal hasn't been ranked since, making their total 58 points, good for 25th place.

Here are the teams among The 48 that Cal has played along with their totals in this formula: Syracuse: 318, New Mexico: 80, Kansas: 496. Those three add up to 894, then divided by three (to get the average) equals 298. Cal went 0-3 against these teams. 

Team
Magic #
Opp. M #
Record vs 48
1.       Kansas
496
113.5
3-1
2.       Texas
476
239
3-0
3.       Kentucky
447
250.6
3-0
4.       Purdue
416
186.5
3-1
5.       Villanova
409
35
3-1
6.       Duke
378
113.8
3-2
7.       West Virginia
371
105.6
3-2
8.       Michigan State
364
174.6
3-3
9.       North Carolina
334
401.25
1-3
10.   Syracuse
318
126.5
3-1
11.   Tennessee
292
456
1-1
12.   Connecticut
264
191.8
1-4
13.   Georgetown
224
154.5
4-0
14.   Washington
165
99.5
2-2
15.   Ohio State
160
102.4
2-5
16.   Butler
150
67.2
1-4
17.   Kansas State
124
41.3
2-1
18.   Florida
95
203.75
2-2
19.   Gonzaga
92
144.8
4-2
20.   Georgia Tech
87
142.3
1-2
21.   New Mexico
80
37.2
4-1
22.   Clemson
76
146.25
1-3
23.   Mississippi
69
229.75
1-3
24.   Michigan
65
248.5
0-2
25.   California
58
298
0-3

Flaws in the formula

This formula only works for teams that have been consistently ranked in the top 25. Teams that have been in and out  (Texas Tech and Ohio State) did not crack the top 25 in this. Also, teams that were ranked highly in the preseason and early weeks were rewarded (UNC and Cal).

Notes on opposition
Tennessee easily had the highest average opponent ranking, but only played two teams which sky-rocketed their average. Ohio State played 7 teams, the most among The 48, but only went 2-5 against them. Gonzaga, New Mexico, Georgetown and Purdue all had 4 wins against these teams, all tied for the most. Texas and Kentucky were both 3-0 against The 48,  and their opponents averaged over 200 for their magic number, but Wisconsin was the only team to win 4 games with opponent average over 200. Also, teams that played Portland or Northwestern were hurt in the "opponents' Magic # column" as both teams only got 1 point.  

Remember that you can suggest a formula for me to use next week by commenting below, or by sending me an email.

 

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