Last week I got an e-mail from a gymnastics fan on the east coast and wondered whether it was worth traveling to the American Cup in New York City on March 3. She also had some questions about which athletes were likely to be there.
Here are my replies, which are based on rampant speculation. Oh well...it's fun anyway.
Q: Which eight girls do you predict to be there?
A: If the FIG runs it like they did last year, the top eight in the all-around from the 2011 Worlds will be invited, so those eight gymansts will have first pick. If one declines, her invite goes to number nine in the world, then number 10, and so on. All this is basically pure speculation, but Jordyn Wieber's coach has expressed an indication to accept the invitation, and I'd bet Aly Raisman will too.
(Note: Wieber herself confirmed that barring injury she will go to the American Cup in 2012. Raisman, who is also newly professional, is also likely to jump at the opportunity.)
Komova I think is unlikely to go, and China may be inclined to send Huang Qiushuang again but maybe not Yao Jinnan. I don't think Romania will send anyone -- not enough money to travel, and no all-arounder that would do well enough except Ana Porgras, Larisa Iordache being technically ineligible for the competition because she didn't compete at the 2011 Worlds.
Ksenia Afanasyeva I'd think the Russians would be inclined to send, and Lauren Mitchell, Hannah Whelan and Nadine Jarosch or Elisabeth Seitz all might like a crack at it.
Q: Would Jordyn Wieber and Viktoria Komova be shoe ins since they were 1-2 at the Worlds?
A: Wieber yes, since she's won it twice, she's World champ and she's an American. Komova no, since she'll be focusing on the European Championships or the French International, she lost to Wieber in Tokyo and this meet is known to favor Americans. I'd be very surprised to see her there -- I doubt she wants to lose to Wieber again.
Q: Since Jordyn Wieber has won twice already, would it be standard to attend a third time?
A: It's not really standard, but I believe the format is that all the gymnasts are supposed to have competed at the last Worlds. That didn't keep the U.S. from inserting Wieber for Rebecca Bross at the last minute this year though, much to the displeasure of the Russians.
Q: Will Aliya Mustafina be ready for it?
A: I don't think so. I don't know how bad the ACL tear really was (apparently there are degrees of how bad an ACL tear can be) and she and the Russians are certainly trying to hasten her recovery, but I think with a blown knee it's just not going to be possible until mid-spring at the earliest. She might be ready to compete bars or even bars and beam by Euros, but it seems most unlikely she'd be ready to do a competitive vault or floor routine.
Q: Which other potential Americans might go?
A: Kyla Ross is a new senior they might want to test out and see how she handles the pressure. Shawn Johnson also seems like a viable candidate. Gabrielle Douglas, a true all-arounder, would not be a bad choice either.
Q: Finally, what are your other thoughts about the American Cup?
A: It's a great, fun meet, in a big venue this year. A lot is at stake with this being the Olympic year, and a lot will be made of it. Go if you have the chance.
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