Although a recent report indicates U.S. rail intermodal traffic gained market share against trucks in 2009 fourth quarter, the question remains: "will the railroads be able to sustain these gains once all traffic is back to normal?" That query is proposed by Dennis Tam in Houston, president of Transportation Clubs International.
The rail intermodal transport gain produced a new high in the process, according to the recent analysis by FTR Associates of Nashville IN. Intermodal’s share of U.S. long-haul (550+ mile) movements of international and domestic containerized freight was estimated to be 13.3 percent in the fourth quarter, up 0.2 percent from the third quarter and slightly above the previous high-water mark achieved in Q4 2008. The analysis is contained in the February issue of FTR’s Intermodal Monthly Update.
Tam points out: "Right now because of a still-struggling economy and buyer hesitation many commodity groups are still way behind late 2008 and all of 2009 movements. Thus with fewer trains, less congestion and fewer railcars on the Class I's at any given time, they have been able to move what freight they do have more efficiently. To me, the real test will be when shipments increase have the Class I's learned from past mistakes--and have they truly put plans in place to continue to challenge truck movements of similar distance."
FTR Associates also notes that the latest increase is driven by improvement in the international intermodal sector, an indication that imports and exports are rebounding faster than domestic traffic.
In Houston, Tam reports that Houston ports are experiencing the same levels of efficiency. "But again it is because of reduced congestion due to decreased amounts of other goods moving in and out of the ports," he adds. "The wait and see aspect remains as to how the railroads (and ports) will handle the increase in shipments, which will be coming over the next three quarters."
Click here for earlier Tam comments on the industry.
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